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Consequences of a progressive reduction of direct payments in Germany: paving the way for post-2013?

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  • Kellermann, Konrad
  • Sahrbacher, Amanda
  • Sahrbacher, Christoph
  • Balmann, Alfons

Abstract

Due to Germany’s specific farm structure, the progressive modulation of direct payments decided within the Health Check of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is of particular relevance for German agriculture. In this paper we apply the agent-based model AgriPoliS to shed some light on the structural effects of a progressive modulation as evoked in the Health Check (HC) proposal and the final agreement made in November 2008 for two German regions. Furthermore, we analyse whether a progressive modulation will allow for a continuous policy in the case of a reduced hypothetical single area payment of 150 €/ha starting in 2013. Results show that although we could observe substantial income effects in the short and long run, structural effects of the progressive modulation scheme are small but preservative. In contrast, the introduction of a reduced single area payment in 2013 would sharply increase structural change. In case the initial HC proposal is followed by a single area payment the previously observed policy effects would diminish for very large (above € 300,000 premium) and small farms (below € 100,000 premium). Still, although these effects are much less pronounced with the final HC agreement, the progressive modulation would provide farmers with wrong signals, as it is most likely that future reforms will be characterized by less support and thus require a stronger market orientation of farms. Auf Grund der spezifischen Betriebstrukturen in Deutschland ist die von den EU Agrarministern beschlossene „Gesundheitsbewertung“ der gegenwärtigen Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik der EU (GAP) und insbesondere die darin enthaltenen Vorschläge einer „progressiven Modulation“ von besonderer Bedeutung für die hiesige Landwirtschaft. Aus diesem Grund wird das agentenbasierte Modell AgriPoliS verwendet, um für zwei Regionen in Deutschland die Auswirkungen einer progressiven Modulation, wie sie der endgültigen Beschlussfassung sowie in den ursprünglichen Vorschlägen enthalten ist, zu analysieren. Es wird weiterhin der Frage nachgegangen, ob im Falle einer deutlich reduzierten einheitlichen Flächenprämie in Höhe von 150 €/ha ab dem Jahr 2013 die progressive Modulation eine kontinuierliche Politikentwicklung ermöglichen würde. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass obwohl ein deutlicher Einkommenseffekt von der progressiven Modulation ausgeht, die Struktureffekte kurz- und mittelfristig gering sind, unter den ursprünglichen Vorschlägen aber dennoch strukturkonservierend wären. Im Gegensatz dazu würde die Einführung einer reduzierten einheitlichen Flächenprämie zu einem deutlich verstärkten Strukturwandel führen. Weiterhin kann gezeigt werden, dass für sehr große (über 300 000 € Prämie) und kleine Betriebe (kleiner 100 000 € Prämie) Auswirkungen einer reduzierten Flächenprämie unabhängig von der vorangegangen Politik wären. Obwohl mit den nun beschlossenen Regelungen die Struktureffekte wesentlich geringer ausfallen als unter den ursprünglich geplanten Vorschlägen, ist eine progressive Modulation der Direktzahlungen perspektivisch nicht eingängig, insbesondere vor dem Hintergrund der mit der Fischler-Reform verbundenen Zielsetzung, die europäische Landwirtschaft in Richtung einer stärkeren Wettbewerbs- und Marktorientierung zu führen.

Suggested Citation

  • Kellermann, Konrad & Sahrbacher, Amanda & Sahrbacher, Christoph & Balmann, Alfons, 2009. "Consequences of a progressive reduction of direct payments in Germany: paving the way for post-2013?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 58(4).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gjagec:134429
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kathrin Happe, 2005. "Agricultural policies and farm structures - agent-based simulation and application to EU-policy reform," Others 0504011, EconWPA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sahrbacher, Amanda, 2012. "Impacts of CAP reforms on farm structures and performance disparities: An agent-based approach," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 65, number 65.
    2. Sahrbacher, Christoph, 2011. "Regional structural change in European agriculture: Effects of decoupling and EU accession," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 60, number 60.

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