Tariff impact and actual deviation on China’s staple grain trade under RCEP: a GTAP model analysis

Purpose. This study aims to evaluate the impact of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) tariff commitments on China’s staple grain trade by applying the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. In addition, it examines the deviations between model-based trade projections and actual trade outcomes to identify the main sources of inconsistency. Methodology. This study applies the GTAP computable general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of tariff adjustments under RCEP. Using CEPII database indicators to update economic conditions to 2022, the study constructs multiple trade scenarios and compares the predicted results with actual trade data from 2022 to 2023 to assess the accuracy and deviations of the predictions. Results. The analysis shows that tariff reductions under RCEP stimulated grain exports, especially rice, but the positive effects diminished over time, while imports of certain products, such as processed rice, declined. Model simulations predicted export growth of 1 to 5% and import decreases of 1.5 to 2%. However, a comparison with actual trade flows indicates that these effects were overstated. External factors – such as fluctuations in international grain prices, domestic production conditions, and agricultural policy adjustments – had a stronger impact, leading to deviations between the predictions and the actual outcomes. Originality. This study focuses on the impact of RCEP on China’s staple grain trade, comparing GTAP model predictions with actual post-RCEP trade data. It provides an empirical analysis of prediction deviations and reveals the limitations of tariff-based trade forecasts in volatile agricultural markets. Practical value. The findings provide empirical evidence for policymakers, highlighting that tariffs alone have a constrained impact on actual grain trade outcomes. The results underscore the necessity of a multidimensional approach that accounts for macroeconomic volatility, environmental conditions, and policy shifts. The study advocates for a balanced approach, combining moderate tariff reductions with flexible trade strategies, to strengthen the resilience of staple grain markets.