IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ajosrd/342319.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this article

The Future of Saudi Arabia's Date Exports Using a Cointegration Model

Author

Listed:
  • Alnafissa, Mohamad
  • Alderiny, Mahmoud
  • Alamri, Yosef
  • Alhashim, Jawad

Abstract

Dates represent an important export crop for Saudi Arabia that attracts foreign exchange. There is an opportunity for Saudi Arabia to extend its date exports to the international market due to production exceeding consumption and comparative advantage in date production. This paper explores the future export market for Saudi dates by analyzing the factors that affect Saudi date exports and highlighting this crop’s comparative advantage. Also, the paper uses autoregressive and distributed lag methodology with data from 1980 to 2017 to predict the future for exported dates between 2020 and 2025. The relationship between the export of dates and other exogenous variables shows there are significant effects from domestic production, domestic consumption of dates, and the price of exported dates in both the long and short term. In contrast, the comparative advantage of Saudi dates shows a significant effect only in the short term, because there has been no active program to promote Saudi dates in global markets. The explanatory variables predict that 2019 Saudi date exports will increase by 3.8-fold in 2025, with the total export amount over 700 thousand tons. Thus, there is an opportunity to develop more programs that target the international market in support of date farms and exporters, and to support market research directed at satisfying the international market.

Suggested Citation

  • Alnafissa, Mohamad & Alderiny, Mahmoud & Alamri, Yosef & Alhashim, Jawad, 2021. "The Future of Saudi Arabia's Date Exports Using a Cointegration Model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society (AESS), vol. 11(01), January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajosrd:342319
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.342319
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/342319/files/The%20Future%20of%20Saudi%20Arabia%E2%80%99s%20Date%20Exports%20Using%20a%20Cointegration%20Model.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.342319?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    3. Chinwuba Okafor & Ibrahim Shaibu, 2016. "Modelling Economic Growth Function in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 84-93.
    4. Al-Abdulkader Ahmed M. & Al-Kahtani Safar H. & Ismaiel, Sobhy M. & Elhendi Ahmed M. & Saad Ali I. & Alamri Yosef A. & Al-Dakhil Abdullah I., 2016. "Enhancing Marketing Efficiency of the Saudi Dates at the National and International Markets," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(8), pages 1-53, August.
    5. Chinwuba Okafor & Ibrahim Shaibu, 2016. "Modelling Economic Growth Function in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 84-93.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohamad Alnafissa & Mahmoud Alderiny & Yosef Alamri & Jawad Alhashim, 2021. "The Future of Saudi Arabia’s Date Exports Using a Cointegration Model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(1), pages 113-119, March.
    2. Tekilu Tadesse & Jemal Abafia, 2019. "The causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Supply Leading vs Demand Following Hypothesis," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 3(1), pages 87-115.
    3. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Why is South Africa Still a Developing Country?," MPRA Paper 80763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Yadawananda Neog, 2019. "Does Fiscal Spending Promote Economic Growth in India? An Application of Toda-Yamamoto Causal Approach," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 23-40.
    5. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages Between Export, Import And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Tunisia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 13-53, December.
    6. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    7. Md.Yousuf & Raju Ahmed & Nasrin Akther Lubna & Shah Md. Sumon, 2019. "Estimating the Services Sector Impact on Economic Growth of Bangladesh: An Econometric Investigation," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 62-72, June.
    8. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
    9. Zheng, Li & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael & Lv, Kangjuan, 2022. "How technological innovation and institutional quality affect sectoral energy consumption in Pakistan? Fresh policy insights from novel econometric approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    10. Johannes W. Fedderke & John M. Luiz, 2005. "Does Human Generate Social and Institutional Capital? Exploring Evidence From Time Series Data in a Middle Income Country," Working Papers 029, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    11. Herzer Dierk, 2022. "Semi-endogenous Versus Schumpeterian Growth Models: A Critical Review of the Literature and New Evidence," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 73(1), pages 1-55, April.
    12. Mohammad I. Elian & Khalid M. Kisswani, 2018. "Oil price changes and stock market returns: cointegration evidence from emerging market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 317-337, November.
    13. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    14. Hande Aksöz Yılmaz, 2020. "The Impact of Foreign Trade on Immigration from Turkey to Germany: ARDL Bounds Test Approach," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 62(62), pages 123-143, December.
    15. Utku ALTUNÖZ, 2018. "Investigating the Presence of Fisher Effect for the China Economy," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(35).
    16. Karolina Konopczak & Aleksander Łożykowski, 2021. "Efekt fiskalny uszczelniania systemu podatkowego w Polsce: próba oszacowania w zakresie podatku CIT," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 1, pages 25-55.
    17. Özcan Karahan & Olcay Çolak, 2019. "Examining the Validity of Wagner's Law versus Keynesian Hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey's Economy," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 66(1), pages 117-130, March.
    18. Siddiqi, Umema, 2021. "Estimating Long-Run Cointegration between Gold Prices and its Determinants," MPRA Paper 103182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bagnai, Alberto & Mongeau Ospina, Christian Alexander, 2015. "Long- and short-run price asymmetries and hysteresis in the Italian gasoline market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 41-50.
    20. Gerard Bikorimana & Charles Rutikanga & Didier Mwizerwa, 2020. "Linking energy consumption with economic growth: Rwanda as a case study," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2020(2), pages 181-200.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Marketing;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ajosrd:342319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aesstea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.