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Modelling Economic Growth Function in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Chinwuba Okafor
  • Ibrahim Shaibu

Abstract

The objectives of the study were to identify the significant variables that underlie economic growth in Nigeria, ascertain the stability of the economic growth model in Nigeria over the sample period, and examine the forecasting performance of the linear dynamic model. This study applies a linear dynamic model based on Pesaran et al. (2001) multivariate autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling technique to analyze the short-run and long-run dynamics of economic growth in Nigeria over the sample period between 1986 and 2013 using quarterly data. The empirical results show that economic growth in Nigeria finds explanation in adaptive expectations. The main determining variables of economic growth in Nigeria in the short-run and long-run are expected economic growth, population and trade openness. To achieve sustainable economic growth, it is suggested that government policies directed at improving the performance of the economy should largely consider the short-run and long-run behaviour of these variables and the policies should be pursued with high degree of transparency.

Suggested Citation

  • Chinwuba Okafor & Ibrahim Shaibu, 2016. "Modelling Economic Growth Function in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 84-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:aoj:ajeaer:v:3:y:2016:i:1:p:84-93:id:215
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    Cited by:

    1. Yadawananda Neog, 2019. "Does Fiscal Spending Promote Economic Growth in India? An Application of Toda-Yamamoto Causal Approach," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 23-40.
    2. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Why is South Africa Still a Developing Country?," MPRA Paper 80763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yakubu Awudu Sare, 2021. "Threshold Effects of Financial Sector Development on International Trade in Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 515-541, January.
    4. Mohamad Alnafissa & Mahmoud Alderiny & Yosef Alamri & Jawad Alhashim, 2021. "The Future of Saudi Arabia’s Date Exports Using a Cointegration Model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(1), pages 113-119, March.
    5. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages Between Export, Import And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Tunisia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 13-53, December.
    6. Mohamad Alnafissa & Mahmoud Alderiny & Yosef Alamri & Jawad Alhashim, 2021. "The Future of Saudi Arabia’s Date Exports Using a Cointegration Model," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(1), pages 113-119.
    7. Tekilu Tadesse & Jemal Abafia, 2019. "The causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Supply Leading vs Demand Following Hypothesis," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 3(1), pages 87-115.
    8. Endi Rekarti & Zakaria Bahari & Normaisarah M. Zahari & Caturida Meiwanto Doktoralina & Nor Asariah Ilias, 2019. "The Sustainability of Muslim Women Entrepreneurs: A Case Study in Malaysia," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(5), pages 430-439, August.
    9. Venkata Sai Srinivasa Rao Muramalla & Ateeq Mesfer Al-Hazza, 2019. "Entrepreneurial Strategies and Factors Stimulate the Business of Tech Startups," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(3), pages 360-370, May.
    10. Zalina Zainudin & Zarina Mohd Zaki & Abdul Razak Abdul Hadi & Hafezali Iqbal Hussain & Mazhar Hallak Kantakji, 2019. "Investor Sentiment and Firm Financial Performance of Malaysian IPO Firms: Pre and Post Financial Crisis," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(5), pages 450-458, August.

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