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Will Eastern European Migrants Happily Enter the German Pension System after the EU Eastern Enlargement?

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  • Tim Krieger
  • Christoph Sauer

Abstract

A major concern in Western Europe and especially in Germany is that inflows of workers will occur with the EU eastern enlargement, and they will be net beneficiaries of the domestic social security systems. We introduce a model and present evidence by comparing pension systems in the main source and target countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic; Germany) that shows that immigrants most likely have to face a burden from entering the German pension system. Only if the total number of immigrants is sufficiently large may the burden change into a gain. We conclude that if migration takes place it will do so despite – not because of – the existence of the pension systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Krieger & Christoph Sauer, 2004. "Will Eastern European Migrants Happily Enter the German Pension System after the EU Eastern Enlargement?," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 124(1), pages 1-30.
  • Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqsjb:v124_y2004_i1_q1_p1-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Reil-Held, Anette & Schnabel, Reinhold, 1998. "Pension Provision in Germany," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-07, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2000. "Why a Funded Pension System is Useful and Why It is Not Useful," Munich Reprints in Economics 19859, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "Why a Funded Pension System is Needed and Why It is Not Needed," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 7(4), pages 389-410, August.
    4. Stefan Homburg & Wolfram Richter, 1993. "Harmonizing public debt and public pension schemes in the European community," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 51-63, December.
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU-Erweiterung und Arbeitskräftemigration : Wege zu einer schrittweisen Annäherung der Arbeitsmärkte," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    6. Bonin, Holger, 2001. "Will it Last? An Assessment of the 2001 German Pension Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 343, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    7. Rachel M. Friedberg & Jennifer Hunt, 1995. "The Impact of Immigrants on Host Country Wages, Employment and Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
    8. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    9. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Corinna Ahlfeld, 2009. "The scapegoat of heterogeneity - How fragmentation influences political decisionmaking," Departmental Discussion Papers 143, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Krieger, Tim, 2004. "Public pensions and immigration policy when voters are differently skilled," Arbeitspapiere der Nordakademie 2004-01, Nordakademie - Hochschule der Wirtschaft.
    3. Krieger, Tim, 2005. "Renten und Zuwanderung: Ein Überblick über neue Ergebnisse der Forschung," Arbeitspapiere der Nordakademie 2005-04, Nordakademie - Hochschule der Wirtschaft.
    4. Thies Büttner & Robert Schwager, 2003. "Regionale Verteilungseffekte der Hochschulfinanzierung und ihre Konsequenzen," Departmental Discussion Papers 119, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Guisan, Maria-Carmen & Aguayo, Eva & Carballas, David, 2004. "Economic Growth and Cycles in Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia: A comparison with Spain, Austria and other EU countries, 1950-2002," Economic Development 79, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    6. Richard R. Ochmann, 2005. "The first EU Eastern enlargement: impacts on the German economy and public perceptions," IWE Working Papers 158, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies- Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    7. Ileana TACHE & Vlad Dumitrache, 2012. "New Welfare Regimes In Eastern Europe: The Cases Of Romania And Bulgaria," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 10, pages 59-84, December.
    8. Renate Ohr, 2009. "European Monetary Union at Ten: Had the German Maastricht Critics Been Wrong?," Departmental Discussion Papers 141, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H73 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Interjurisdictional Differentials and Their Effects
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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