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Asymmetric Adjustments in Oil and Metals Markets

Author

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  • Shawkat Hammoudeh
  • Li-Hsueh Chen
  • Bassam Fattouh

Abstract

Using the threshold cointegration methods, Enders-Siklos (2001) and Hansen-Seo (2002), this study finds that spot and futures prices in each of the four widely traded commodities, copper, gold, WTI oil and silver are asymmet­rically co-integrated. However, the asymmetric adjustment to the long-run equi­librium differs among those commodities, reflecting different profitable opportu­nities. The adjustment is faster for copper after positive shocks, while it is faster for the safe havens oil, gold and silver after negative shocks. It is more the spot and not the futures price for the four commodities that focuses in its adjustment on long-run factors. In sum, the adjustments imply different trading strategies, depending on whether the faster adjustment happened from above or below the threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Shawkat Hammoudeh & Li-Hsueh Chen & Bassam Fattouh, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustments in Oil and Metals Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 183-204.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2010v31-04-a09
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hassan Ghassan & Prashanta Banerjee, 2015. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric adjustment of OPEC and non-OPEC monthly crude oil prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 305-323, August.
    2. Ghassan, Hassan Belkacem & AlHajhoj, Hassan Rafdan, 2016. "Long run dynamic volatilities between OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 384-394.
    3. Brian M. Lucey & Sile Li, 2015. "What precious metals act as safe havens, and when? Some US evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 35-45, January.
    4. Chang, Chia-Lin & Chen, Li-Hsueh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Asymmetric adjustments in the ethanol and grains markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1990-2002.
    5. Umar, Zaghum & Jareño, Francisco & Escribano, Ana, 2021. "Oil price shocks and the return and volatility spillover between industrial and precious metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    6. Atanu Ghoshray and Tatiana Trifonova, 2014. "Dynamic Adjustment of Crude Oil Price Spreads," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    7. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    8. Amar, Amine Ben & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Commodity markets dynamics: What do cross-commodities over different nearest-to-maturities tell us?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Ahmadi, Maryam & Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "How is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-23.
    10. Katarzyna Leszkiewicz-Kędzior & Aleksander Welfe, 2014. "Asymmetric Price Adjustments in the Fuel Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 105-127, June.
    11. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell & Vahid, Farshid, 2015. "Asymmetric pricing of diesel at its source," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 183-194.
    12. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Ben Amar, Amine & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad, 2022. "Asymmetric cyclical connectedness on the commodity markets: Further insights from bull and bear markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 386-400.
    14. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2018. "Asymmetric responses in the timing, and magnitude, of changes in Australian monthly petrol prices to daily oil price changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 89-100.
    15. Liu, Tengdong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Thompson, Mark A., 2013. "A momentum threshold model of stock prices and country risk ratings: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 99-112.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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