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Modeling Term Structure Dynamics in the Nordic Electricity Swap Market


  • Dennis Frestad
  • Fred Espen Benth
  • Steen Koekebakker


We analyze the daily returns of Nordic electricity swaps and identify significant risk premia in the short end of the market. On average, long positions in this part of the swap market yield negative returns. The daily returns are distinctively non-normal in terms of tail-fatness, but we find little evidence of asymmetry. We investigate if the flexible four-parameter class of normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distributions can capture the observed stylized facts and find that this class of distributions offers a remarkably improved fit relative to the normal distribution. We also compare the fit with that of the four-parameter class of stable distributions; the NIG law outperforms the stable law in the vast majority of cases. Thus, the NIG family of distributions, which allows for stochastic dynamics in terms of LŽvy processes that are suitable for pricing derivatives and Value-at-Risk measurements, is a serious candidate for modeling term structure dynamics in the Nordic electricity market.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Frestad & Fred Espen Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2010. "Modeling Term Structure Dynamics in the Nordic Electricity Swap Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 53-86.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2010v31-02-a03

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, July.
    2. Jordi Brandts & Paul Pezanis-Christou & Arthur Schram, 2008. "Competition with forward contracts: a laboratory analysis motivated by electricity market design," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(525), pages 192-214, January.
    3. Ferreira José Luis, 2006. "The Role of Observability in Futures Markets," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Bolle, Friedel, 1992. "Supply function equilibria and the danger of tacit collusion : The case of spot markets for electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 94-102, April.
    5. Newbery, D, 2008. "Analytic Solutions for Supply Function Equilibria: Uniqueness and Stability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0848, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Kristiansen, Tarjei, 2007. "Pricing of monthly forward contracts in the Nord Pool market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 307-316, January.
    7. Mahenc, P. & Salanie, F., 2004. "Softening competition through forward trading," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 282-293, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kruhner, 2014. "Derivatives pricing in energy markets: an infinite dimensional approach," Papers 1412.7943,
    2. Fred Benth & Jukka Lempa, 2014. "Optimal portfolios in commodity futures markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 407-430, April.
    3. Angelica Gianfreda & Derek Bunn, 2018. "A Stochastic Latent Moment Model for Electricity Price Formation," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS46, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    4. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Delphine Lautier, 2015. "On the spot-futures no-arbitrage relations in commodity markets," Papers 1501.00273,, revised Feb 2018.
    5. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2016. "A Structural Model for Electricity Forward Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1611, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    6. Debbie Dupuis, Geneviève Gauthier, and Fréderic Godin, 2016. "Short-term Hedging for an Electricity Retailer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    7. Fred Espen Benth & Paul Kruhner, 2014. "Representation of infinite dimensional forward price models in commodity markets," Papers 1403.4111,
    8. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagen, Liv Aune & Nygård, Maria Tandberg & Smith-Sivertsen, Ragnhild & Sollie, Johan M., 2015. "The overnight risk premium in electricity forward contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 293-300.
    9. repec:eee:ejores:v:261:y:2017:i:2:p:715-734 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General


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