What Oil Export Levels Should We Expect From OPEC?
We analyze the levels of oil exports that should be expected from OPEC over the next 25 years. We search for a long-term, market-adaptive, robustly optimal strategy that best serves OPEC's interests, and conclude that OPEC export profits will be higher if OPEC expands its oil exports by enough to maintain OPEC exports share of non-OPEC demand. Yet the incentives for this export expansion are relatively small only a few percent in terms of discounted export profits and it requires that OPEC be farsighted, because the higher export profits from faster export growth wonot be significant within the next decade. Moreover, if OPEC does maintain its exports share of non-OPEC demand, the continued rapid growth of OPEC's own oil consumption will require that OPEC oil output will have to increase 60% by 2030, which will be a major challenge.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): Volume 28 (2007)
Issue (Month): Number 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 28790 Chagrin Blvd Ste 350, Cleveland, OH 44122, USA|
Web page: http://www.iaee.org
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejsearch.aspx|