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GHG Mitigation Potential, Costs and Benefits in Global Forests: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Approach


  • Jayant Sathaye, Willy Makundi, Larry Dale, Peter Chan, and Kenneth Andrasko


This paper reports on the global potential for carbon sequestration in forest plantations, and the reduction of carbon emissions from deforestation, in response to six carbon price scenarios from 2000 to 2100. These carbon price scenarios cover a range typically seen in global integrated assessment models. The world forest sector was disaggregated into ten regions, four largely temperate, developed regions: the European Union, Oceania, Russia, and the United States; and six developing, mostly tropical, regions: Africa, Central America, China, India, Rest of Asia, and South America. Three mitigation optionsÑlong-and short-rotation forestry, and the reduction of deforestationÑwere analyzed using a global dynamic partial equilibrium model (GCOMAP). Key findings of this work are that cumulative carbon gain ranges from 50.9 to 113.2 Gt C by 2100, higher carbon prices early lead to earlier carbon gain and vice versa, and avoided deforestation accounts for 51 to 78% of modeled carbon gains by 2100. The estimated present value of cumulative welfare change in the sector ranges from a decline of $158 billion to a gain of $81 billion by 2100. The decline is associated with a decrease in deforestation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jayant Sathaye, Willy Makundi, Larry Dale, Peter Chan, and Kenneth Andrasko, 2006. "GHG Mitigation Potential, Costs and Benefits in Global Forests: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 127-162.
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2006se_weyant-a07

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John M. & Jacoby, Henry D., 2000. "The Kyoto Protocol and developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 525-536, July.
    2. Paul M. Bernstein & W. David Montgomery & Thomas F. Rutherford & Gui-Fang Yang, 1999. "Effects of Restrictions on International Permit Trading: The MS-MRT Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 221-256.
    3. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Shackleton, Robert & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1999. "What to expect from an international system of tradable permits for carbon emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3-4), pages 319-346, August.
    4. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
    5. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2001. "The liability rules under international GHG emissions trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 501-508, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karky, Bhaskar Singh & Skutsch, Margaret, 2010. "The cost of carbon abatement through community forest management in Nepal Himalaya," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 666-672, January.
    2. Sathaye, Jayant A. & Anger, Niels, 2008. "Reducing Deforestation and Trading Emissions: Economic Implications for the post-Kyoto Carbon Market," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-016, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    3. van Benthem, Arthur & Kerr, Suzi, 2013. "Scale and transfers in international emissions offset programs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 31-46.
    4. Rose, Steven K. & Ahammad, Helal & Eickhout, Bas & Fisher, Brian & Kurosawa, Atsushi & Rao, Shilpa & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2012. "Land-based mitigation in climate stabilization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 365-380.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General


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