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A Preferred-Habitat Model of Term Premia, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy Spillovers

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  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
  • Walker Ray
  • Dimitri Vayanos

Abstract

We develop a two-country model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles, and segmentation is partly overcome by arbitrageurs with limited capital. Risk premia in our model are time-varying, connected across markets, and consistent with the empirical violations of uncovered interest parity and expectations hypothesis. Through risk premia, large-scale bond purchases lower domestic and foreign bond yields and depreciate the currency, and short-rate cuts lower foreign yields, with smaller effects than bond purchases. Currency returns are disconnected from long-maturity bond returns, and yet the currency market is instrumental in transmitting bond demand shocks across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Walker Ray & Dimitri Vayanos, 2025. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of Term Premia, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy Spillovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(11), pages 3788-3824, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:115:y:2025:i:11:p:3788-3824
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20220379
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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