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Trade and Manufacturing Jobs in Germany

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  • Wolfgang Dauth
  • Sebastian Findeisen
  • Jens Suedekum

Abstract

The German economy exhibits rising service and declining manufacturing employment, but this decline is much sharper in import-competing than export-oriented branches. We first document the individual-level job transitions behind those trends. They are not driven by manufacturing workers who smoothly switch to services. The observed shifts are entirely due to young entrants and returnees from non-employment. We then investigate if rising trade with China and Eastern Europe causally affected those labor flows. Exploiting variation across industries and regions, we find that globalization did not speed up the manufacturing decline in Germany. It even retained those jobs in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2017. "Trade and Manufacturing Jobs in Germany," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 337-342, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:5:p:337-42
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20171025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Neil Baily & Barry P. Bosworth, 2014. "US Manufacturing: Understanding Its Past and Its Potential Future," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
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    5. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    6. Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Südekum, Jens, 2016. "Adjusting to Globalization - Evidence from Worker-Establishment Matches in Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 11045, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kölling, Arnd & Mertens, Antje, 2020. "Exporting behavior and the demand for skills in German establishments," Working Papers 97, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute of Management Berlin (IMB).
    3. Omar Bamieh & Matteo Fiorini & Bernard Hoekman & Adam Jakubik, 2020. "Services Input Intensity and US Manufacturing Employment Responses to the China Shock," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 57(2), pages 333-349, September.
    4. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2021. "Adjusting to Globalization in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 263-302.
    5. Kvedaras, Virmantas & Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2021. "China’s WTO accession and income inequality in European regions: External pressure and internal adjustments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 34-53.
    6. Schran, Felix, 2019. "Locational Choice and Spatial Wage Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 12660, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Michael Hüther, 2020. "Der amerikanische Traum ist ausgeträumt," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(12), pages 918-923, December.
    9. Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & S�dekum, Jens & Woessner, Nicole, 2017. "German Robots - The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers," CEPR Discussion Papers 12306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Anna Goeddeke & Justus Haucap & Annika Herr & Christian Wey, 2018. "Flexibility in Wage Setting Under the Threat of Relocation," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 32(1), pages 1-22, March.
    11. Khan, Muhammad Aamir, 2020. "Cross sectoral linkages to explain structural transformation in Nepal," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 221-235.
    12. Karishma Banga, 2019. "Digital technologies and 'value' capture in global value chains: Empirical evidence from Indian manufacturing firms," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2017. "Technological Innovation and Inclusive Growth in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 11194, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Bonnet, Céline & Schain, Jan Philip, 2017. "An empirical analysis of mergers: Efficiency gains and impact on consumer prices," DICE Discussion Papers 244, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    15. Sónia Cabral & Pedro S. Martins & João Pereira dos Santos & Mariana Tavares, 2021. "Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 570-600, April.
    16. Egger, Peter H. & Kaynak, Pinar & Zoller-Rydzek, Benedikt, 2020. "Indirect effects of trade shocks on Turkish local labor markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum & Nicole Woessner, 2018. "Adjusting to Robots: Worker-Level Evidence," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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    19. Paul Piveteau & gabriel smagghue, 2018. "The Impact of Chinese Competition along the Quality Ladder," 2018 Meeting Papers 509, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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