IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/abk/jajeba/ajebasp.2012.180.189.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation and Analysis of Output Gap: An Application of Structural Vector Autoregression and Hodrick-Prescott-Fmethods

Author

Listed:
  • Saeed Dehghan Khavari
  • Seyed Hossein Mirjalili

Abstract

In this study we examined output gap in the Iranian economy. The main question of the study is that how much is seasonal output gap in Iranian Economy and which factor affects gap variation. The other question is that whether using HP-F as a statistical based method for estimating output gap, provide different result than using SVAR as theory based method. Accordingly the aim of study is to estimate potential output and thus output gap using two method and analysis of the result. We used two methods (Hodrick-Prescott Filter and SVAR) to estimate quarterly output gap for the period 1988:1-2008:4. The results pointed out that the estimation is not sensitive to the method and there is a close relation between oil revenue and output gap. In the period of 1998:3-1999:3, when oil price reduced to $11.45 per barrel, Iranian economy faced with a recession and it affected on output gap with a lag. Output gap increased from 34818 in 2004:1-76782 million dollars in 2008: 4. The comparison of estimated output gap and changes of oil price in different periods point out the positive relation. According to the estimations of output gap, output gap in the Iranian Economy has intense fluctuation due to the effects of oil proceeds fluctuations. In some years, actual output is more than potential output, that is, output gap is positive and so this situation can be an important reason for inflation in that period and policy maker must do plans and policies for control of inflation and in some years, actual output is less than potential output and this means output gap was negative. This situation is a reason for unemployment in these years and therefore policy makers must do expansionary policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Saeed Dehghan Khavari & Seyed Hossein Mirjalili, 2012. "Estimation and Analysis of Output Gap: An Application of Structural Vector Autoregression and Hodrick-Prescott-Fmethods," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 4(3), pages 180-189, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:abk:jajeba:ajebasp.2012.180.189
    DOI: 10.3844/ajebasp.2012.180.189
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://thescipub.com/pdf/ajebasp.2012.180.189.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://thescipub.com/abstract/ajebasp.2012.180.189
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3844/ajebasp.2012.180.189?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    6. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2002. "What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1-5.
    7. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
    8. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1988, Volume 3, pages 111-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mr. Vivek B. Arora & Mr. Ashok Bhundia, 2003. "Potential Output and total Factor Productivity Growth in Post-Apartheid South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2003/178, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Tim Willems, 2009. "Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-074/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 26 Mar 2010.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, "undated". "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology: The Case of the Mexican Economy," Staff Working Papers 95-2, Bank of Canada.
    2. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay & Pierre St-Amant, 1995. "Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using Structural VAR Methodology," Macroeconomics 9504003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    4. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    5. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.
    6. Pedro José Pérez Vázquez, 2003. "Fuentes de variabilidad en las principales economías occidentales," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 565-591, September.
    7. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1995. "Tests of long-run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, February.
    8. Kumah, F.Y., 1996. "Common Stochastic Trends in the Current Account," Other publications TiSEM a4536d58-c31a-45bc-97f5-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.
    10. Kumah, F.Y., 1996. "Common Stochastic Trends in the Current Account," Discussion Paper 1996-84, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Esposti, Roberto, 2002. "Public agricultural R&D design and technological spill-ins: A dynamic model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 693-717, July.
    12. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Great Ratios, Balanced Growth and Stochastic Trends: Evidence for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_20, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    13. Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    14. Roberto ESPOSTI, 2000. "Public R&D Design and Technological Spill-Ins. A Dynamic Model," Working Papers 136, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    15. Magalhães, Matheus Albergaria de & Picchetti, Paulo, 2005. "Regress and Progress! An Econometric Characterization of the Short-Run Relationship between Productivity and Labor Input in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 25(2), November.
    16. Stephen McKnight & Marco Robles Sánchez, 2014. "Is a monetary union feasible for Latin America? Evidence from real effective exchange rates and interest rate pass-through levels," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 29(2), pages 225-262.
    17. Lastrapes, William D. & Selgin, George, 1995. "The liquidity effect: Identifying short-run interest rate dynamics using long-run restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 387-404.
    18. Jang, Kyungho & Ogaki, Masao, 2004. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates: A structural vector error correction model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 99-114, March.
    19. Ben Fung & Rohit Gupta, "undated". "Searching for the Liquidity Effect in Canada," Staff Working Papers 94-12, Bank of Canada.
    20. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output Gap; Structural Var; Hodrick-Prescott Filter; Iran JEL: C13; C22; E1; E321; Iranian Economy; Expansionary Policies; Policy Makers; Intense Fluctuation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:abk:jajeba:ajebasp.2012.180.189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jeffery Daniels (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://thescipub.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.