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What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India?

Author

Listed:
  • Valerie Cerra

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Sweta Chaman Saxena

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Which model best explains the 1991 currency crisis in India? Did real overvaluation contribute to the crisis? This paper seeks the answers through error correction models and by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate using a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The evidence indicates that overvaluation as well as current account deficits and investor confidence played significant roles in the sharp exchange rate depreciation. The ECM model is supported by superior out-of-sample forecast performance versus a random walk model. . Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2002. "What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 1-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:49:y:2002:i:3:p:5
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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