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Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach

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Cited by:

  1. Koji Takahashi & Sumiko Takaoka, 2023. "How much do firms need to satisfy employees? - Evidence from credit spreads and online employee reviews," BIS Working Papers 1111, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2020. "Mildly explosive dynamics in U.S. fixed income markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 712-724.
  3. Caldara, Dario & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Gilchrist, Simon & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 185-207.
  4. Narayan Kundan Kishor, 2021. "Forecasting real‐time economic activity using house prices and credit conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 213-227, March.
  5. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2020. "Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers," CAMA Working Papers 2020-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  6. Kupiec, Paul H., 2020. "Policy uncertainty and bank stress testing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  7. Duca, John V., 2013. "Did the commercial paper funding facility prevent a Great Depression style money market meltdown?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 747-758.
  8. Angela Abbate & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2017. "Macroeconomic activity and risk indicators: an unstable relationship," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1756, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  9. Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2013. "Sector Specific News Shocks in Aggregate and Sectoral Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 4269, CESifo.
  10. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
  11. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-1154, December.
  12. Merola, Rossana, 2015. "The role of financial frictions during the crisis: An estimated DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 70-82.
  13. Hasan, Iftekhar & Horvath, Roman & Mares, Jan, 2020. "Finance and wealth inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  14. Andrea Silvestrini & Andrea Zaghini, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 255, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  15. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  16. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2015. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 340-360.
  17. Guender, Alfred V, 2018. "Credit prices vs. credit quantities as predictors of economic activity in Europe: Which tell a better story?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 380-399.
  18. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2019. "Financial nowcasts and their usefulness in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1708-1724.
  19. Tamás Kiss & Stepan Mazur & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Modeling the relation between the US real economy and the corporate bond‐yield spread in Bayesian VARs with non‐Gaussian innovations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 347-368, March.
  20. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
  21. Gkougkousi, Xanthi & John, Kose & Radhakrishnan, Suresh & Sadka, Gil & Saunders, Anthony, 2022. "Cross-sectional dispersion and bank performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  22. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2024. "Sustainability and credit spreads in Japan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  23. Régis Barnichon & Christian Matthes & Alexander Ziegenbein, 2016. "Theory Ahead of Measurement? Assessing the Nonlinear Effects of Financial Market Disruptions," Working Paper 16-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  24. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Papers 22-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  25. Paul Kitney, 2016. "Financial factors and monetary policy: Determinacy and learnability of equilibrium," CAMA Working Papers 2016-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  26. Popp, Aaron & Zhang, Fang, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: The role of the financial channel," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 319-349.
  27. Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2010. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  28. van Binsbergen, Jules & Hueskes, Wouter & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert, 2013. "Equity yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 503-519.
    • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. De Santis, Roberto A., 2016. "Credit spreads, economic activity and fragmentation," Working Paper Series 1930, European Central Bank.
  30. Bassett, William F. & Chosak, Mary Beth & Driscoll, John C. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Changes in bank lending standards and the macroeconomy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 23-40.
  31. Charlotte Christiansen & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "A comprehensive look at financial volatility prediction by economic variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 956-977, September.
  32. Eicher, Theo S. & García-Peñalosa, Cecilia & Kuenzel, David J., 2018. "Constitutional rules as determinants of social infrastructure," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-209.
  33. Luca Gambetti & Christoph Görtz & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Effect of News Shocks and Monetary Policy," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 139-164, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  34. Fischer, Henning & Stolper, Oscar, 2019. "The nonlinear dynamics of corporate bond spreads: Regime-dependent effects of their determinants," Discussion Papers 08/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  35. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "The relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy: Stable or time-varying?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
  36. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Dissecting the 2007–2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 16(1), pages 34-62.
  37. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2017. "The term structure of credit spreads and business cycle in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 27-36.
  38. Esteban Prieto & Sandra Eickmeier & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1215-1233, November.
  39. Lenza, Michele & Moutachaker, Inès & Paredes, Joan, 2023. "Density forecasts of inflation: a quantile regression forest approach," Working Paper Series 2830, European Central Bank.
  40. Renato Faccini & Eirini Konstantinidi & George Skiadopoulos & Sylvia Sarantopoulou-Chiourea, 2019. "A New Predictor of U.S. Real Economic Activity: The S&P 500 Option Implied Risk Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4927-4949, October.
  41. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian & Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2016. "Assessing the Non-Linear Effects of Credit Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
  43. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1044-1064.
  44. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2021. "Economic Predictions With Big Data: The Illusion of Sparsity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2409-2437, September.
  45. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-54.
  46. Cremers, Martijn & Fleckenstein, Matthias & Gandhi, Priyank, 2021. "Treasury yield implied volatility and real activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 412-435.
  47. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2016. "Disaggregated Credit Extension and Financial Distress in South Africa," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 226-240, June.
  48. Harri Ponka, 2017. "The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, August.
  49. Anna Samarina & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2024. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Income Inequality in the Euro Area?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 35-80, February.
  50. Anna Samarina & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2019. "Does monetary policy affect income inequality in the euro area?," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 61, Bank of Lithuania.
  51. Peter Broer & Jürgen Antony, 2013. "Financial Shocks and Economic Activity in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 260.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  52. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2022. "The credit spread curve distribution and economic fluctuations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  53. Kwon, Dohyoung, 2020. "Risk Shocks and Credit Spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  54. Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
  55. Brownlees, Christian & Souza, André B.M., 2021. "Backtesting global Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 312-330.
  56. Schumacher, Christian, 2014. "MIDAS regressions with time-varying parameters: An application to corporate bond spreads and GDP in the Euro area," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100289, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  57. Samuels, Jon D. & Sekkel, Rodrigo M., 2017. "Model Confidence Sets and forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 48-60.
  58. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Credit Supply Shocks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 195-232, June.
  59. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank.
  60. De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2020. "Forecasting macroeconomic risk in real time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions," Working Paper Series 2436, European Central Bank.
  61. Deng, Chuang & Wu, Jian, 2023. "Macroeconomic downside risk and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  62. Yang, Qiao, 2019. "Stock returns and real growth: A Bayesian nonparametric approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-69.
  63. Michael T. Kiley, 2022. "Unemployment Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1407-1424, August.
  64. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.
  65. Born, Benjamin & Müller, Gernot J. & Pfeifer, Johannes & Wellmann, Susanne, 2020. "Different no more: Country spreads in advanced and emerging economies," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 129, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
  66. Covas, Francisco B. & Rump, Ben & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Stress-testing US bank holding companies: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 691-713.
  67. Takaoka, Sumiko, 2018. "Convenience yield on government bonds and unconventional monetary policy in Japanese corporate bond spreads," MPRA Paper 86418, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," Discussion Papers 11/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  69. Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Jules Vanbinsbergen & Wouter H. Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B Vrugt, 2012. "Equity Yields," Working Papers 2012-007, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  70. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2015. "Analyzing business cycle asymmetries in a multi-level factor model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 31-34.
  71. Santis, Roberto A. De, 2018. "Unobservable systematic risk, economic activity and stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 51-69.
  72. Michael T. Kiley, 2023. "Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  73. Nicoletti, Giulio & Passaro, Raffaele, 2012. "Sometimes it helps: the evolving predictive power of spreads on GDP dynamics," Working Paper Series 1447, European Central Bank.
  74. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 2016/126, International Monetary Fund.
  75. Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2015. "On the Information Flow from Credit Derivatives to the Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 2015/21, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  76. Yimin Xu & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "Does the Fed's unconventional monetary policy weaken the link between the financial and the real sector?," DNB Working Papers 529, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  77. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 39452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  78. Peter Broer & Jürgen Antony, 2013. "Financial Shocks and Economic Activity in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 260, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  79. Colombo, Valentina & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2020. "Does the credit supply shock have asymmetric effects on macroeconomic variables?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
  80. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
  81. Jari Hännikäinen, 2014. "The mortgage spread as a predictor of real-time economic activity," Working Papers 1496, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
  82. Josef Hollmayr & Michael Kuehl, 2016. "Imperfect Information about Financial Frictions and Consequences for the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 179-207, October.
  83. Leonardo Gambacorta & Sergio Mayordomo & Jose Maria Serena, 2020. "Dollar borrowing, firmcharacteristics, and FX-hedged funding opportunities," BIS Working Papers 843, Bank for International Settlements.
  84. Xu Feng & Xiaowen An & Yahui An & Yajun Xiao, 2024. "Shadow Funding and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 589-611, March.
  85. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.
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  88. Jürgen Antony & D. Broer, 2015. "Euro area financial shocks and economic activity in The Netherlands," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 571-595, August.
  89. Stefan Gebauer, 2017. "The Use of Financial Market Variables in Forecasting," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 115, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  90. Hafsa Hina & Henna Ahsan & Hania Afzal, 2022. "The Information in the Yield Spread for the Recession in the Case of Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2022:11, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  91. Jon D. Samuels & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2013. "Forecasting with Many Models: Model Confidence Sets and Forecast Combination," Staff Working Papers 13-11, Bank of Canada.
  92. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
  93. Kuosmanen, Petri & Rahko, Jaana & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Predictive ability of financial variables in changing economic circumstances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 37-47.
  94. Jari Hännikäinen, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 47-54, September.
  95. Ujjal Chatterjee, 2023. "Predicting economic growth: evidence from real-estate loans securitization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, March.
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