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The role of financial frictions during the crisis: an estimated DSGE model

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  • Merola, Rossana

Abstract

After the recent banking crisis in 2008, financial market conditions have turned out to be a relevant factor for economic fluctuations. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of financial frictions on the U.S. business cycle. The analysis compares the original Smets and Wouters model (2003, 2007) with an alternative version augmented with the financial accelerator mechanism à la Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1996, a 1999). Both versions are estimated using Bayesian techniques over a sample extended to 2012. The analysis supports the role of financial channels, namely the financial accelerator mechanism, in transmitting dysfunctions from financial markets to the real economy. The Smets and Wouters model, augmented with the financial accelerator mechanism, is suitable to capture much of the historical developments in U.S. financial markets that led to the financial crisis. The model can account for the output contraction in 2008, as well as the widening in corporate spreads and supports the argument that financial conditions have amplified the U.S. business cycle and the intensity of the recession.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series Dynare Working Papers with number 33.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:033

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Keywords: DSGE models; business cycle; financial frictions; Bayesian estimation;

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  1. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2004. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0391, European Central Bank.
  2. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Alberto Ortiz & Matthius Paustian, 2013. "Estimating contract indexation in a financial accelerator model," Working Paper 1216, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2010. "The Zero Lower Bound, ECB Interest Rate Policy and the Financial Crisis," DNB Working Papers 254, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  4. Mark Gertler & Cara S. Lown, 2000. "The Information in the High Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," NBER Working Papers 7549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. An, Sungbae & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Julio Carrillo & Celine Poilly, 2013. "Online Appendix to "How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?"," Technical Appendices 12-54, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  7. Simon G. Gilchrist & Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The financial accelerator and the flight to quality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Ferre De Graeve, 2008. "The external finance premium and the macroeconomy: US post-WWII evidence," Working Papers 0809, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  9. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  10. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, 03.
  11. Gerke, R. & Jonsson, M. & Kliem, M. & Kolasa, M. & Lafourcade, P. & Locarno, A. & Makarski, K. & McAdam, P., 2013. "Assessing macro-financial linkages: A model comparison exercise," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 253-264.
  12. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 327-365, December.
  13. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in a Model with Financial Frictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 35-40, May.
  14. Gelain, Paolo, 2010. "The external finance premium in the Euro area: A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 49-71, March.
  15. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Karamé, Fréderic & Juillard, Michel & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Jul 2014.
  16. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2009. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 7598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
  18. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  19. Rossana MEROLA, 2012. "Monetary policy and fiscal stimulus with the zero lower bound and financial frictions," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2012024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  20. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  21. Virginia Queijo von Heideken, 2009. "How Important are Financial Frictions in the United States and the Euro Area?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(3), pages 567-596, 09.
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