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Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models

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Cited by:

  1. Loutfi, Ahmad Amine & Sun, Mengtao & Loutfi, Ijlal & Solibakke, Per Bjarte, 2022. "Empirical study of day-ahead electricity spot-price forecasting: Insights into a novel loss function for training neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
  2. repec:dui:wpaper:1502 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
  4. Javed, Fahad & Arshad, Naveed & Wallin, Fredrik & Vassileva, Iana & Dahlquist, Erik, 2012. "Forecasting for demand response in smart grids: An analysis on use of anthropologic and structural data and short term multiple loads forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 150-160.
  5. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
  6. Mukherjee, Paramita & Coondoo, Dipankor & Lahiri, Poulomi, 2019. "Forecasting Hourly Prices in Indian Spot Electricity Market," MPRA Paper 103161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
  8. Lin, Whei-Min & Gow, Hong-Jey & Tsai, Ming-Tang, 2010. "An enhanced radial basis function network for short-term electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(10), pages 3226-3234, October.
  9. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & Vrancx, Peter & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices in Europe: The importance of considering market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 890-903.
  10. Fanelli, Viviana & Maddalena, Lucia & Musti, Silvana, 2016. "Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 92-102.
  11. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010. "A paper on the unsettled question of Turkish electricity market: Balancing and settlement system (Part I)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 251-258, January.
  12. Gianfreda, Angelica & Grossi, Luigi, 2012. "Forecasting Italian electricity zonal prices with exogenous variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2228-2239.
  13. Marchetti, Isabella & Rego, Erik Eduardo, 2022. "The impact of hourly pricing for renewable generation projects in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 601-617.
  14. F. Cordoni, 2020. "A comparison of modern deep neural network architectures for energy spot price forecasting," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 189-210, December.
  15. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafal Weron, 2013. "Forecasting of daily electricity spot prices by incorporating intra-day relationships: Evidence form the UK power market," HSC Research Reports HSC/13/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, revised 15 Apr 2013.
  16. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2016. "Empirical Analysis of Developments in the Day Ahead Electricity Markets in India," MPRA Paper 72969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Andr s Oviedo-G mez & Sandra Milena Londo o-Hern ndez & Diego Fernando Manotas-Duque, 2021. "Electricity Price Fundamentals in Hydrothermal Power Generation Markets Using Machine Learning and Quantile Regression Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 66-77.
  18. Billé, Anna Gloria & Gianfreda, Angelica & Del Grosso, Filippo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Forecasting electricity prices with expert, linear, and nonlinear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 570-586.
  19. Brenda López Cabrera & Franziska Schulz, 2016. "Time-Adaptive Probabilistic Forecasts of Electricity Spot Prices with Application to Risk Management," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-035, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  20. Raviv, Eran & Bouwman, Kees E. & van Dijk, Dick, 2015. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: Utilizing hourly prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 227-239.
  21. Thao Pham & Killian Lemoine, 2020. "Impacts of subsidized renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany : Evidence from a GARCH model with panel data," Working Papers hal-02568268, HAL.
  22. Rafal Weron & Adam Misiorek, 2006. "Short-term electricity price forecasting with time series models: A review and evaluation," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  23. Streckiene, Giedre & Martinaitis, Vytautas & Andersen, Anders N. & Katz, Jonas, 2009. "Feasibility of CHP-plants with thermal stores in the German spot market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(11), pages 2308-2316, November.
  24. Fong Chan, Kam & Gray, Philip, 2006. "Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 283-300.
  25. Marie Bessec & Julien Fouquau & Sophie Meritet, 2016. "Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 361-378, January.
  26. Xavier Serrano-Guerrero & Guillermo Escrivá-Escrivá & Santiago Luna-Romero & Jean-Michel Clairand, 2020. "A Time-Series Treatment Method to Obtain Electrical Consumption Patterns for Anomalies Detection Improvement in Electrical Consumption Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, February.
  27. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2019. "On the impact of outlier filtering on the electricity price forecasting accuracy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 196-210.
  28. Tschora, Léonard & Pierre, Erwan & Plantevit, Marc & Robardet, Céline, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
  29. Simon Pezzutto & Gianluca Grilli & Stefano Zambotti & Stefan Dunjic, 2018. "Forecasting Electricity Market Price for End Users in EU28 until 2020—Main Factors of Influence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
  30. Kosater, Peter, 2006. "On the impact of weather on German hourly power prices," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 1/06, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
  31. Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009. "It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
  32. Zorana Božić & Dušan Dobromirov & Jovana Arsić & Mladen Radišić & Beata Ślusarczyk, 2020. "Power Exchange Prices: Comparison of Volatility in European Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
  33. Hickey, Emily & Loomis, David G. & Mohammadi, Hassan, 2012. "Forecasting hourly electricity prices using ARMAX–GARCH models: An application to MISO hubs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 307-315.
  34. André Luis da Silva Leite & Marcus Vinicius Andrade de Lima, 2023. "A GARCH Model to Understand the Volatility of the Electricity Spot Price in Brazil," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 332-338, September.
  35. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011. "Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
  36. McConnell, Dylan & Forcey, Tim & Sandiford, Mike, 2015. "Estimating the value of electricity storage in an energy-only wholesale market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 422-432.
  37. Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2008. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 744-763.
  38. Muche, Thomas, 2009. "A real option-based simulation model to evaluate investments in pump storage plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4851-4862, November.
  39. Léonard Tschora & Erwan Pierre & Marc Plantevit & Céline Robardet, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Post-Print hal-03621974, HAL.
  40. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13532 is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
  42. Andrea Saayman & Ilsé Botha, 2017. "Non-linear models for tourism demand forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 594-613, May.
  43. Bento, P.M.R. & Pombo, J.A.N. & Calado, M.R.A. & Mariano, S.J.P.S., 2018. "A bat optimized neural network and wavelet transform approach for short-term price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 88-97.
  44. Liu, Luyao & Bai, Feifei & Su, Chenyu & Ma, Cuiping & Yan, Ruifeng & Li, Hailong & Sun, Qie & Wennersten, Ronald, 2022. "Forecasting the occurrence of extreme electricity prices using a multivariate logistic regression model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
  45. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
  46. Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses & Antonio Muñoz, 2016. "Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-27, March.
  47. Krzemień, Alicja & Riesgo Fernández, Pedro & Suárez Sánchez, Ana & Diego Álvarez, Isidro, 2016. "Beyond the pan-european standard for reporting of exploration results, mineral resources and reserves," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-91.
  48. Petrella, Andrea & Sapio, Alessandro, 2012. "Assessing the impact of forward trading, retail liberalization, and white certificates on the Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 307-317.
  49. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
  50. Bekiroglu, Korkut & Duru, Okan & Gulay, Emrah & Su, Rong & Lagoa, Constantino, 2018. "Predictive analytics of crude oil prices by utilizing the intelligent model search engine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2387-2397.
  51. Saber Talari & Miadreza Shafie-khah & Gerardo J. Osório & Fei Wang & Alireza Heidari & João P. S. Catalão, 2017. "Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets in the Presence of a High Penetration of Wind Power Generators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-13, November.
  52. Park, S.C. & Jin, Y.G. & Song, H.Y. & Yoon, Y.T., 2015. "Designing a critical peak pricing scheme for the profit maximization objective considering price responsiveness of customers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 521-531.
  53. Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Haldrup, Niels & Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2016. "Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
  54. Jan Smolen & Branislav Dudic, 2017. "The Role of Residual Demand in Electricity Price Analysis and Forecasting: Case of Czech Electricity Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 152-158.
  55. S. Vijayalakshmi & G. P. Girish, 2015. "Artificial Neural Networks for Spot Electricity Price Forecasting: A Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1092-1097.
  56. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
  57. Anastasiia Koliesnichenko, 2017. "Theoretical Aspects Of The Predictional Instrumentation For Application In The State Regulation Of The Participants Relationships In The Electricity Market," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 3(2).
  58. Halužan, Marko & Verbič, Miroslav & Zorić, Jelena, 2020. "Performance of alternative electricity price forecasting methods: Findings from the Greek and Hungarian power exchanges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
  59. Ilkay Oksuz & Umut Ugurlu, 2019. "Neural Network Based Model Comparison for Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
  60. Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.
  61. Jónsson, Tryggvi & Pinson, Pierre & Madsen, Henrik, 2010. "On the market impact of wind energy forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 313-320, March.
  62. Zhen Li & Yun Li & Yanbin Li, 2019. "Performance Evaluation of Energy Transition Based on the Technique for Order Preference by a Similar to Ideal Solution and Support Vector Machine Optimized by an Improved Artificial Bee Colony Algorit," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-21, August.
  63. Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael & Schnabl, Alexander, 2005. "Real options and the value of generation capacity in the German electricity market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 297-310.
  64. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
  65. Cui, Can & Wu, Teresa & Hu, Mengqi & Weir, Jeffery D. & Li, Xiwang, 2016. "Short-term building energy model recommendation system: A meta-learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 251-263.
  66. Clements, A.E. & Herrera, R. & Hurn, A.S., 2015. "Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 383-393.
  67. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2019. "Application of ARIMA Modelling for the Forecasting of Solar, Wind, Spot and Options Electricity Prices: The Australian National Electricity Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 263-272.
  68. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafał Weron, 2015. "Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 805-819, September.
  69. Andrea Petrella & Sandro Sapio, 2010. "No PUN intended: A time series analysis of the Italian day-ahead electricity prices," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/03, European University Institute.
  70. Shao, Zhen & Yang, ShanLin & Gao, Fei & Zhou, KaiLe & Lin, Peng, 2017. "A new electricity price prediction strategy using mutual information-based SVM-RFE classification," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 330-341.
  71. Alonso Fernández, Andrés Modesto & García-Martos, Carolina & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez, María Jesús, 2008. "Seasonal dynamic factor analysis and bootstrap inference : application to electricity market forecasting," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws081406, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  72. Christensen, T.M. & Hurn, A.S. & Lindsay, K.A., 2012. "Forecasting spikes in electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-411.
  73. Frömmel, Michael & Han, Xing & Kratochvil, Stepan, 2014. "Modeling the daily electricity price volatility with realized measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 492-502.
  74. Michail I. Seitaridis & Nikolaos S. Thomaidis & Pandelis N. Biskas, 2021. "Fundamental Responsiveness in European Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
  75. Li, Ranran, 2023. "Forecasting energy spot prices: A multiscale clustering recognition approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  76. Christian Pape & Arne Vogler & Oliver Woll & Christoph Weber, 2017. "Forecasting the distributions of hourly electricity spot prices," EWL Working Papers 1705, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised May 2017.
  77. Carlo Fezzi & Luca Mosetti, 2018. "Size matters: Estimation sample length and electricity price forecasting accuracy," DEM Working Papers 2018/10, Department of Economics and Management.
  78. Tashpulatov, Sherzod N., 2013. "Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: The case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 81-90.
  79. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Stathakis, Efthimios, 2014. "Forecasting energy markets using support vector machines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 135-142.
  80. Díaz, Guzmán & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2019. "Prediction and explanation of the formation of the Spanish day-ahead electricity price through machine learning regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 610-625.
  81. Lu, Ye & Suthaharan, Neyavan, 2023. "Electricity price spike clustering: A zero-inflated GARX approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  82. Godin, Frédéric & Ibrahim, Zinatu, 2021. "An analysis of electricity congestion price patterns in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  83. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2005. "Energy market reforms in Turkey: An economic analysis," MPRA Paper 26929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  84. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2021. "Real-time electricity price forecasting of wind farms with deep neural network transfer learning and hybrid datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
  85. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
  86. Adam Clements & Joanne Fuller & Stan Hurn, 2013. "Semi-parametric Forecasting of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 508-521, December.
  87. Chuntian Cheng & Bin Luo & Shumin Miao & Xinyu Wu, 2016. "Mid-Term Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting with Sparse Data: A Case in Newly-Reformed Yunnan Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-22, October.
  88. Hryshchuk, Antanina & Lessmann, Stefan, 2018. "Deregulated day-ahead electricity markets in Southeast Europe: Price forecasting and comparative structural analysis," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-009, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
  89. Kosater, Peter & Mosler, Karl, 2006. "Can Markov regime-switching models improve power-price forecasts? Evidence from German daily power prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(9), pages 943-958, September.
  90. Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
  91. Santiago Gall n & Jorge Barrientos, 2021. "Forecasting the Colombian Electricity Spot Price under a Functional Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 67-74.
  92. Lehna, Malte & Scheller, Fabian & Herwartz, Helmut, 2022. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A comparison of time series and neural network models taking external regressors into account," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  93. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2020. "Use of new variables based on air temperature for forecasting day-ahead spot electricity prices using deep neural networks: A new approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
  94. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  95. Diego Aineto & Javier Iranzo-Sánchez & Lenin G. Lemus-Zúñiga & Eva Onaindia & Javier F. Urchueguía, 2019. "On the Influence of Renewable Energy Sources in Electricity Price Forecasting in the Iberian Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-20, May.
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  97. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
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  102. Pape, Christian & Hagemann, Simon & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Are fundamentals enough? Explaining price variations in the German day-ahead and intraday power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 376-387.
  103. Jun Maekawa & Bui Hien Hai & Sarana Shinkuma & Koji Shimada, 2018. "The Effect of Renewable Energy Generation on the Electric Power Spot Price of the Japan Electric Power Exchange," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-16, August.
  104. Matyjaszek, Marta & Riesgo Fernández, Pedro & Krzemień, Alicja & Wodarski, Krzysztof & Fidalgo Valverde, Gregorio, 2019. "Forecasting coking coal prices by means of ARIMA models and neural networks, considering the transgenic time series theory," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 283-292.
  105. Keles, Dogan & Scelle, Jonathan & Paraschiv, Florentina & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Extended forecast methods for day-ahead electricity spot prices applying artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 218-230.
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  109. Lago, Jesus & De Ridder, Fjo & De Schutter, Bart, 2018. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 386-405.
  110. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
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  112. Feihu Sun & Xianyong Meng & Yan Zhang & Yan Wang & Hongtao Jiang & Pingzeng Liu, 2023. "Agricultural Product Price Forecasting Methods: A Review," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-20, August.
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