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An agent-based approach with collaboration among agents: Estimation of wholesale electricity price on PJM and artificial data generated by a mean reverting model

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  • Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki
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    Abstract

    This study examines the performance of MAIS (Multi-Agent Intelligent Simulator) equipped with various learning capabilities. In addition to the learning capabilities, the proposed MAIS incorporates collaboration among agents. The proposed MAIS is applied to estimate a dynamic change of wholesale electricity price in PJM (Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Mainland) and an artificial data set generated by a mean reverting model. Using such different types of data sets, the methodological validity of MAIS is confirmed by comparing it with other well-known alternatives in computer science. This study finds that the MAIS needs to incorporate both the mean reverting model and the collaboration behavior among agents in order to enhance its estimation capability. The MAIS discussed in this study will provide research on energy economics with a new numerical capability that can investigate a dynamic change of not only wholesale electricity price but also speculation and learning process of traders.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 1025-1033

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:5:p:1025-1033

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: Power trading Agent-based approach Mean reverting model;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
    2. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael, 2004. "Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 87-106, January.
    3. Bask, Mikael & Widerberg, Anna, 2008. "Market Structure and the Stability and Volatility of Electricity Prices," Working Papers in Economics 327, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    4. Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki, 2010. "An agent-based approach equipped with game theory: Strategic collaboration among learning agents during a dynamic market change in the California electricity crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1009-1024, September.
    5. Demers, Jean-Guy, 2009. "Multiple zone power forwards: A value at risk framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 714-726, September.
    6. Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
    7. Goto, Mika & Tsutsui, Miki, 2008. "Technical efficiency and impacts of deregulation: An analysis of three functions in U.S. electric power utilities during the period from 1992 through 2000," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 15-38, January.
    8. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Goto, Hisanori & Goto, Mika & Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki, 2011. "Consumer choice on ecologically efficient water heaters: Marketing strategy and policy implications in Japan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 195-208, March.
    2. Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki & Goto, Mika, 2012. "Environmental assessment by DEA radial measurement: U.S. coal-fired power plants in ISO (Independent System Operator) and RTO (Regional Transmission Organization)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 663-676.
    3. Sun, Chuanwang & Lin, Boqiang, 2013. "Reforming residential electricity tariff in China: Block tariffs pricing approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 741-752.
    4. Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki & Goto, Mika, 2014. "Photovoltaic power stations in Germany and the United States: A comparative study by data envelopment analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 271-288.
    5. Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki & Goto, Mika & Sugiyama, Manabu, 2013. "DEA window analysis for environmental assessment in a dynamic time shift: Performance assessment of U.S. coal-fired power plants," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 845-857.

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