Market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices
AbstractBy using a novel approach in this paper, ([lambda],[sigma]2)-analysis, we have found that electricity prices most of the time have increased in stability and decreased in volatility when the Nordic power market has expanded and the degree of competition has increased. That electricity prices at Nord Pool have been generated by a stochastic dynamic system that most often has become more stable during the step-wise integration of the Nordic power market means that this market is less sensitive to shocks after the integration process than it was before this process. This is good news.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Electricity prices GARCH models Lyapunov exponents Market structure Reconstructed dynamics Stability Volatility;
Other versions of this item:
- Bask, Mikael & Widerberg, Anna, 2008. "Market Structure and the Stability and Volatility of Electricity Prices," Working Papers in Economics 327, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chris Brooks & Simon Burke, 2003. "Information criteria for GARCH model selection," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 557-580.
- Simon M. Potter, 1999.
"Nonlinear impulse response functions,"
65, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Bask, Mikael & de Luna, Xavier, 2001.
"Characterizing the degree of stability of non-linear dynamic models,"
UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies
564, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
- Bask Mikael & de Luna Xavier, 2002. "Characterizing the Degree of Stability of Non-linear Dynamic Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, April.
- Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989.
"On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices,"
145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- McLaren, J., 1992.
"Speculation on Primary Commodities: The Effects of Restricted Entry,"
1992_37, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- McLaren, John, 1999. "Speculation on Primary Commodities: The Effects of Restricted Entry," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 853-71, October.
- Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 1991.
"Storage and Commodity Markets,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521326162, October.
- Bask, Mikael & Liu, Tung & Widerberg, Anna, 2007.
"The stability of electricity prices: Estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,
Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 565-572.
- Mikael Bask & Tung Liu & Anna Widerberg, 2006. "The Stability of Electricity Prices: Estimation and Inference of the Lyapunov Exponent," Working Papers 200603, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2006.
- Bask , Mikael & Liu , Tung & Widerberg , Anna, 2006. "The stability of electricity prices: estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents," Research Discussion Papers 9/2006, Bank of Finland.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
" On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Scheinkman, Jose A & Schechtman, Jack, 1983. "A Simple Competitive Model with Production and Storage," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 427-41, July.
- Oliver Linton & Mototsugu Shintani, 2002.
"Nonparametric Neutral Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos,"
STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series
/2002/434, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Shintani, Mototsugu & Linton, Oliver, 2004. "Nonparametric neural network estimation of Lyapunov exponents and a direct test for chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 1-33, May.
- Oliver Linton & Mototsugu Shintani, 2003. "Nonparametric Neural Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2003/455, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2003. "Nonparametric Neural Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0309, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Thille, Henry, 2006. "Inventories, market structure, and price volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1081-1104, July.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Dmitry V. Vedenov & Mario J. Miranda, 2001. "Numerical solution of dynamic oligopoly games with capital investment," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 237-261.
- Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1996.
"Competitive storage and commodity price dynamics,"
Open Access publications from University College London
http://discovery.ucl.ac.u, University College London.
- Mikael Bask & Jens Lundgren & Niklas Rudholm, 2009. "Market power in the expanding Nordic power market," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1035-1043.
- Lundgren, Jens & Hellström, Jörgen & Rudholm, Niklas, 2008. "Multinational Electricity Market Integration and Electricity Price Dynamics," HUI Working Papers 16, HUI Research.
- Mototsugu Shintani, 2003.
"A Nonparametric Measure of Convergence Toward Purchasing Power Parity,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
506439000000000172, David K. Levine.
- Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 589-604.
- Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "A Nonparametric Measure of Convergence Toward Purchasing Power Parity," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0219, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec..
- Newbery, David M, 1984. "Commodity Price Stabilization in Imperfect or Cartelized Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 563-78, May.
- Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2000. "Nord Pool: A Power Market Without Market Power," Working Papers in Economics 28, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodriguez & Julián Andrada-Félix, 2005. "Testing chaotic dynamics via Lyapunov exponents," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 911-930.
- Gencay Ramazan & Dechert W. Davis, 1996. "The Identification of Spurious Lyapunov Exponents in Jacobian Algorithms," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-12, October.
- Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki, 2010. "An agent-based approach with collaboration among agents: Estimation of wholesale electricity price on PJM and artificial data generated by a mean reverting model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1025-1033, September.
- Bask, Mikael, 2007.
"Measuring potential market risk,"
Research Discussion Papers
20/2007, Bank of Finland.
- HFrance Krizanic & Zan Jan Oplotnik, 2013. "Market Changes, Business Cycles and Fluctuations in Electricity Prices - EU Evidence from Germany and Slovenia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 118-126.
- Angelica Gianfreda & Luigi Grossi, 2011.
"Forecasting Italian Electricity Zonal Prices with Exogenous Variables,"
01/2011, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
- Gianfreda, Angelica & Grossi, Luigi, 2012. "Forecasting Italian electricity zonal prices with exogenous variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2228-2239.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.