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Euler equations and money market interest rates: The role of monetary and risk premium shocks

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  • Gareis, Johannes
  • Mayer, Eric

Abstract

This paper challenges the view that the observed negative correlation between the Federal Funds rate and the interest rate implied by consumption Euler equations is systematically linked to monetary policy. By using a Monte Carlo experiment, we show that stochastic risk premium disturbances have the capability to drive a wedge between the interest rate targeted by the central bank and the implied Euler equation interest rate such that the correlation between actual and implied rates is negative. --

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Paper provided by University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics in its series W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers with number 89.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:89

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Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-wuerzburg.de/en/no_cache/lehrstuehle/vwl1/home/
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Keywords: Euler Interest Rate; Monetary Policy; Risk Premium Shocks;

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  1. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  3. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  4. Richard Dennis, 2009. "Consumption Habits in a New Keynesian Business Cycle Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 1015-1030, 08.
  5. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  7. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  9. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October.
  10. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris, 2012. "Euler equations and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-5.
  11. Yamin Ahmad, 2002. "Money Market Rates and Implied CCAPM Rates: Some International Evidence," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-06, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
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