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Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Instability or How the Central Bank Can Pre-empt Sunspot Expectations

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  • Weder, Mark

Abstract

This paper derives new results on the effects of employing Taylor rules in economies that are subject to real market imperfections such as production externalities. Taylor rules that aggressively respond to output can eliminate sunspot equilibria that arise from the increasing returns. The paper also finds that rules which should be chosen (avoided) in perfect market environments often yield (ensure) multiple (unique) rational expectations solutions in alternative settings. Therefore, exact knowledge on the degree of market imperfection may be pivotal for robust policy advice. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2003,49.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200349

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  1. Weder, Mark, 2000. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 2585, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
  3. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
  4. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers," Staff Report 214, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Working Paper 9910R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications," NBER Working Papers 9420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  9. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin J. Lansing, 1997. "Indeterminacy and stabilization policy," Working Paper 9708, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Salyer, Kevin D., 1995. "The macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 215-242, February.
  11. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Tracing externalities as sources of indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 851-867, May.
  12. Weder, Mark, 1998. "Fickle Consumers, Durable Goods, and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 37-57, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Mark Weder, 2006. "Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stabilization," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 72(2), pages 195-204.
  2. Mark Weder, 2006. "Sticky Prices and Indeterminacy," CDMA Working Paper Series 200601, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  3. Schabert, Andreas & Stoltenberg, Christian, 2005. "Money Demand and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 4974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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