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Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Asymmetric Monetary Union§

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  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner
  • Clausen, Volker

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of anticipated and unanticipated oil price increases in a small two-country monetary union, which is simultaneously characterized by asymmetric wage adjustments and asymmetric interest rate sensitivities of private absorption. It is shown that both types of oil price disturbances lead to temporary divergences in output developments across the monetary union. In the case of anticipated oil price increases the relative cyclical position of output effects is reversed in the course of the adjustment process. With anticipated oil price increases complete stabilization of the output variables throughout the overall adjustment process requires restrictive monetary policy to be time-inconsistent from a quantitative but time-consistent from a qualitative point of view. That means that the central bank credibly announces a future reduction in the growth rate of nominal money stock but actually realizes a decrease in the monetary growth rate, which is less restrictive than the announcement. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2003,11.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:1121

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Related research

Keywords: EMU; international policy transmission; oil price shock; time inconsistency;

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References

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  1. Bhandari, Jagdeep S. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1984. "Materials price increases and aggregate adjustment in an open economy : A Stochastic Approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 151-182, July.
  2. Buiter, Willem H & Miller, Marcus, 1981. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 204, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 7151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Buiter, W, 1982. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models : A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 200, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. Volker Clausen & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2002. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union," Macroeconomics, EconWPA 0201001, EconWPA.
  6. Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-17, May.
  7. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Clausen, Volker, 2002. "Foreign price shocks and monetary policy in an asymmetric monetary union," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 124, University of Duisburg-Essen, Faculty for Economics and Business Administration.
  8. Michael Devereux & Douglas D. Purvis, 1984. "Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 593, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  9. Hans-Werner Wohltmann & Frank Bulthaupt, 1999. "Intertemporale Output- und Beschäftigungseffekte angebotsorientierter Politikmaßnahmen in einer Währungsunion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 218(1+2), pages 1-22, January.
  10. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262201232, December.
  11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  12. Buiter, Willem H, 1978. "Short-run and Long-run Effects of External Disturbances under a Floating Exchange Rate," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 45(179), pages 251-72, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Volker Clausen & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2013. "Oil Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(2), pages 159-187, March.

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