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Oil Price Shocks and Cyclical Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union

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  • Volker Clausen

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  • Hans-Werner Wohltmann

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of anticipated and unanticipated oil price increases in a small two-country monetary union, which is simultaneously characterized by asymmetric wage adjustments and asymmetric interest rate sensitivities of private absorption. Common external oil price disturbances lead in this asymmetric macroeconomic setup to temporary divergences in output developments across the monetary union. In the case of anticipated oil price increases the relative cyclical position is reversed in the course of the adjustment process. Complete stabilization of the output variables throughout the overall adjustment process requires a restrictive monetary policy being time inconsistent from a quantitative but time consistent from a qualitative point of view. That means that the central bank credibly announces a future reduction in the growth rate of the nominal money stock but actually implements a reduction, which is less restrictive than the original announcement.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0247.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0247

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Related research

Keywords: EMU; international policy transmission; oil price shock; time inconsistency; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Bhandari, Jagdeep S. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1984. "Materials price increases and aggregate adjustment in an open economy : A Stochastic Approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 151-182, July.
  2. Clausen, Volker & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Monetary and fiscal policy dynamics in an asymmetric monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 139-167, February.
  3. Buiter, Willem H & Miller, Marcus, 1981. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 204, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  4. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2006. "Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and Counterfactual Experiments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1945-1958, October.
  5. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus: A Neoclassical Perspective," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-421, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  6. Westphal, Uwe, 1982. "'Real exchange rate overshooting and the output cost of bringing down inflation' by buiter and miller," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 129-130.
  7. Westphal, Uwe, 1982. "'Real exchange rate overshooting and the output cost of bringing down inflation' by Buiter and Miller," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 129-130.
  8. Buiter, Willem H, 1978. "Short-run and Long-run Effects of External Disturbances under a Floating Exchange Rate," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 45(179), pages 251-72, August.
  9. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1987. "International Interdependence and Policy Coordination in Economies with Real and Nominal Wage Rigidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Buiter, W, 1982. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models : A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 200, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  11. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Hans-Werner Wohltmann & Volker Clausen, 2002. "Dynamische Effekte symmetrischer Nachfrage- und Angebotspolitiken in einer asymmetrischen Währungsunion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 222(2), pages 230-257.
  13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  14. Flood, Robert P., 1982. "'Real exchange rate overshooting and the output cost of bringing down inflation' by Buiter and Miller," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 125-127.
  15. Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-17, May.
  16. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Price Dispersion in the Euro Area: The Case of a Symmetric Oil Price Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series 2718, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Michael Devereux & Douglas D. Purvis, 1984. "Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 593, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  18. Winkler, Roland C. & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2006. "Anticipated Raw Materials Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Response - A New Keynesian Approach," Economics Working Papers 2006,19, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  19. Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2009. "Oil and the Euro area economy," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 24, pages 603-651, October.
  20. Bernanke, Ben S & Gertler, Mark & Watson, Mark W, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Reply," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 287-91, April.
  21. Hans-Werner Wohltmann & Frank Bulthaupt, 1999. "Intertemporale Output- und Beschäftigungseffekte angebotsorientierter Politikmaßnahmen in einer Währungsunion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 218(1+2), pages 1-22, January.
  22. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Volker Clausen & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2013. "Oil Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(2), pages 159-187, March.

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