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Dynamische Effekte der Geld-und Fiskalpolitik in einem asymmetrischen Drei-Länder-Modell mit einer Währungsunion

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  • Wohltmann, Hans-Werner

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag werden die intertemporalen Wirkungen von antizipierten geld- und fiskalpolitischen Maßnahmen im Rahmen eines asymmetrischen Drei-Länder-Modells vom Mundell-Fleming-Phillips-Typ mit rationalen Preis- und Wechselkursänderungserwartungen charakterisiert. Zwei der drei großen offenen Volkswirtschaften bilden dabei eine Währungsunion, die durch eine gemeinsame Zentralbank, eine Einheitswährung und einen gemeinsamen flexiblen Wechselkurs gegenüber dem Drittland gekennzeichnet ist. Im Unterschied zur bestehenden Literatur zur Theorie einer Währungsunion und zur Theorie der internationalen Politiktransmission sind die beiden Mitgliedsländer der Union nicht vollkommen symmetrisch, sondern weisen sowohl auf der Nachfrageseite als auch auf der Angebotsseite jeweils eine Asymmetrie auf. Dennoch ist es möglich, das dynamische asymmetrische Drei-Länder-Modell mit Hilfe der für vollkommen symmetrische Länder entwickelten Dekompositionsmethode von Fukuda (1993) analytisch zu lösen. -- This paper analyzes the international transmission of anticipated monetary and fiscal policy in the framework of an asymmetric dynamic three-country model with monetary union. The monetary union consists of two large member countries with an asymmetric macroeconomic structure both on the demand and supply side. The paper explicitly solves the asymmetric macroeconomic model using a generalization of the well-known decomposition method of Aoki (1981) to the three-country case. It is shown that the inter- national transmission both of an anticipated unilateral increase in the growth rate of the union money stock and in government expenditure is negative over a large period of time. Within the monetary union intertemporal reversals in the relative effectiveness of policy on member country outputs occur. It is further shown that an international coordination of monetary policy is able to stabilize the output development in the three countries induced by unilateral fiscal policy expansion.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2005,19.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:3836

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Keywords: Monetary Union; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Policy Coordination;

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  1. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1985. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under Perfect Foresight: A Symmetric Two Country Analysis," NBER Working Papers 1699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hans-Werner Wohltmann & Volker Clausen, 2002. "Dynamische Effekte symmetrischer Nachfrage- und Angebotspolitiken in einer asymmetrischen Währungsunion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 222(2), pages 230-257.
  3. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 1993. "International transmission of monetary and fiscal policy : A symmetric N-country analysis with union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 589-620, July.
  4. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1991. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 239-277 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Volker Clausen & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2002. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union," Macroeconomics 0201001, EconWPA.
  6. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262201232, December.
  7. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
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