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Oil Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union

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  • Volker Clausen

    ()
    (University of Duisburg-Essen)

  • Hans-Werner Wohltmann

    ()
    (University of Kiel)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of oil price increases in a small two-country monetary union with asymmetric wage adjustment equations. Common oil price shocks lead during the adjustment process to temporary divergences in output and inflation and also to reversals in the relative cyclical position across the monetary union. We distinguish between three types of oil price shocks: (1) an unanticipated permanent shock, (2) an unanticipated temporary shock and (3) an anticipated permanent shock.We illustrate the macroeconomic effects of these shocks by means of dynamic simulations and examine the respective stabilization role of monetary policy. While permanent oil price hikes always lead to stagflation, temporary shocks are associated with deflation in the very short run as the reduction of real income lowers the demand for the domestically produced good. The implications for monetary policy are also shock-specific. Monetary policy faces a signal extraction problem as it needs to determine whether oil price shocks are transitory or permanent in order to make appropriate decisions not only about the strength, but also the direction of monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 233 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 159-187

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:233:y:2013:i:2:p:159-187

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Related research

Keywords: EMU; international policy transmission; oil price shock; time inconsistency; monetary policy; signal extraction problem;

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References

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  1. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Kromer, Wolfgang, 1989. "On the notion of time-consistency : A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1283-1288, July.
  2. Bhandari, Jagdeep S. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1984. "Materials price increases and aggregate adjustment in an open economy : A Stochastic Approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 151-182, July.
  3. Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2009. "Oil and the Euro area economy," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 603-651, October.
  4. Buiter, W, 1982. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models : A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 200, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  5. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1991. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 239-277 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hans-Werner Wohltmann & Frank Bulthaupt, 1999. "Intertemporale Output- und Beschäftigungseffekte angebotsorientierter Politikmaßnahmen in einer Währungsunion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 218(1+2), pages 1-22, January.
  8. Clausen, Volker & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2002. "Monetary and fiscal policy dynamics in an asymmetric monetary union," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 119, University of Duisburg-Essen, Faculty for Economics and Business Administration.
  9. Michael Devereux & Douglas D. Purvis, 1984. "Fiscal Policy and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 593, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  10. Ronald E. Findlay & Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, 1977. "Intermediate Imports and Macroeconomic Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 208-17, May.
  11. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Clausen, Volker, 2003. "Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Asymmetric Monetary Union§," Economics Working Papers 2003,11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  12. Buiter, Willem H, 1978. "Short-run and Long-run Effects of External Disturbances under a Floating Exchange Rate," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 45(179), pages 251-72, August.
  13. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & D. Filiz Unsal, 2009. "On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 09/285, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Hans-Werner Wohltmann & Volker Clausen, 2002. "Dynamische Effekte symmetrischer Nachfrage- und Angebotspolitiken in einer asymmetrischen Währungsunion," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 222(2), pages 230-257.
  16. Volker Clausen & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Cyclical Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union," Ruhr Economic Papers 0247, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  17. Ghoshray, Atanu & Johnson, Ben, 2010. "Trends in world energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1147-1156, September.
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