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Rebalancing the euro area: Is wage adjustment in Germany the answer?

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  • Hoffmann, Mathias
  • Kliem, Martin
  • Krause, Michael
  • Moyen, Stephane
  • Sauer, Radek

Abstract

We assess to what extent wage inflation policies in Germany could contribute to an economic rebalancing in the euro area and the rest of the world. We find that a rise in nominal wage inflation has positive short-run effects on inflation and output in Germany and the rest of the euro area. The duration of constant interest rates and expectations about the monetary policy stance matter to the magnitude of the results obtained. We establish that the modelling of the trade relationships with the rest of the world is of particular importance, as it allows to capture the induced relative price movements and hence changes in competitiveness within the three regions. Our results are obtained from an estimated DSGE model which consists of Germany, the rest of the euro area, and the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoffmann, Mathias & Kliem, Martin & Krause, Michael & Moyen, Stephane & Sauer, Radek, 2020. "Rebalancing the euro area: Is wage adjustment in Germany the answer?," Discussion Papers 17/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:172020
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Hoffmann, Mathias & Moench, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2022. "Would households understand average inflation targeting?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 52-66.
    3. Ortega, Eva & Osbat, Chiara, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    4. Ansgar Rannenberg & Thomas Theobald, 2022. "Income inequality and the German export surplus," Working Paper Research 424, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Haertel, Thomas & Hamburg, Britta & Kusin, Vladimir, 2022. "The macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank revisited," Technical Papers 01/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE model; Bayesian estimation; Monetary policy; Trade balance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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