We present a version of Chern et al.'s (1995) Bayesian model of `health risk belief' to track the evolution of the `weight' of epidemiological evidence concerning tobacco harm that was in the possession of the U.S. Tobacco Industry Research Committee (T.I.R.C.) and the U.S. Public Health Service and related groups during the 1950s and early 1960s. We compare our results with public statements assessing the evidence that were made by the organisations during the same period. The results from the models for the U.S. Public Health Service and related groups are not in disagreement with the public statements of these organisations; the results from the lung cancer model for the T.I.R.C. are in disagreement with the assessments of the evidence made by the T.I.R.C.'s Scientific Director in his annual reports. We discuss possible reasons for this, relating our findings to present-day academic and legal debates about the `controversy' surrounding tobacco harm during the mid-twentieth century.
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number
06/23.
Length: Date of creation: Dec 2006 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:06/23
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