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The 'weight of evidence' concerning tobacco harm: beliefs in mid-twentieth century America

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  • Martin Forster
  • Martin Walsh
  • Sue Bowden

Abstract

We present a version of Chern et al.'s (1995) Bayesian model of `health risk belief' to track the evolution of the `weight' of epidemiological evidence concerning tobacco harm that was in the possession of the U.S. Tobacco Industry Research Committee (T.I.R.C.) and the U.S. Public Health Service and related groups during the 1950s and early 1960s. We compare our results with public statements assessing the evidence that were made by the organisations during the same period. The results from the models for the U.S. Public Health Service and related groups are not in disagreement with the public statements of these organisations; the results from the lung cancer model for the T.I.R.C. are in disagreement with the assessments of the evidence made by the T.I.R.C.'s Scientific Director in his annual reports. We discuss possible reasons for this, relating our findings to present-day academic and legal debates about the `controversy' surrounding tobacco harm during the mid-twentieth century.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Forster & Martin Walsh & Sue Bowden, 2006. "The 'weight of evidence' concerning tobacco harm: beliefs in mid-twentieth century America," Discussion Papers 06/23, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:06/23
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    1. Chern, Wen S & Loehman, Edna T & Yen, Steven T, 1995. "Information, Health Risk Beliefs, and the Demand for Fats and Oils," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 555-564, August.
    2. Deborah J. Brown & Lee F. Schrader, 1990. "Cholesterol Information and Shell Egg Consumption," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(3), pages 548-555.
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