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The Impact of Horizontal Mergers on Rivals: Gains to Being Left Outside a Merger

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  • Joseph A. Clougherty
  • Tomaso Duso

Abstract

It is commonly perceived that firms do not want to be outsiders to a merger between competitor firms. We instead argue that it is beneficial to be a non-merging rival firm to a large horizontal merger. Using a sample of mergers with expert-identification of relevant rivals and the event-study methodology, we find rivals generally experience positive abnormal returns at the merger announcement date. Further, we find that the stock reaction of rivals to merger events is not sensitive to merger waves; hence, ‘future acquisition probability’ does not drive the positive abnormal returns of rivals. We then build a conceptual framework that encompasses the impact of merger events on both merging and rival firms in order to provide a schematic to elicit more information on merger type. ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Die Wirkung von horizontalen Zusammenschlüssen auf Wettbewerber: Der Nutzen einer Außenseiterposition bei Fusionen) Es ist gemeinhin bekannt, dass Unternehmen nicht Außenseiter einer Fusion zwischen eigenen Wettbewerbern sein wollen. In dieser Arbeit zeigen wir, dass es für Unternehmen durchaus vorteilhaft sein kann, sich an einem großen horizontalen Zusammenschluss nicht zu beteiligen. Anhand einer Datenbank von großen Fusionen, in denen die relevanten Wettbewerber der fusionierenden Unternehmen von Experten der Europäischen Kommission identifiziert worden sind, und Mithilfe einer Ereignisstudienmethode, bestätigen wir empirisch, dass Wettbewerber durchschnittlich positive abnormale Gewinne bei der Ankündigung eines Zusammenschlusses erzielen. Darüber hinaus stellen wir fest, dass die Reaktion der Aktienkurse von Konkurrenten bei der Ankündigung eines Zusammenschlusses nicht anfällig für Fusionswellen ist, und dass die abnormalen Gewinne nicht von der "künftigen Firmenübernahmewahrscheinlichkeit" getrieben sind. Schließlich wird in der Studie ein konzeptioneller Rahmen entwickelt, der die Auswirkungen der Fusion sowohl auf die fusionierenden Unternehmen und als auch auf die Wettbewerber zusammenfasst, um die Art des Zusammenschlusses besser identifizieren zu können.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG) in its series CIG Working Papers with number SP II 2008-17r.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision: Feb 2009
Handle: RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:spii2008-17r

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Keywords: Rivals; Mergers; Acquisitions; Event-Study;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Oliver Budzinski & Jürgen-Peter Kretschmer, 2009. "Horizontal Mergers, Involuntary Unemployment, and Welfare," Working Papers 90/09, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Environmental and Business Economics.
  2. Duso, Tomaso & Guglery, Klaus & Szücs, Florian, 2010. "An Empirical Assessment of the 2004 EU Merger Policy Reform," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 337, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
  3. Dodonova, Anna, 2013. "Preemptive bidding in takeover auctions with externality," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 35-44.
  4. Joseph A. Clougherty & Tomaso Duso, 2010. "Using Rival Effects to Identify Synergies and Improve Merger Typologies," CIG Working Papers SP II 2010-13, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  5. Klaus Gugler & Florian Szücs, 2013. "Merger Externalities in Oligopolistic Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1321, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Keller, Andreas, 2010. "Competition effects of mergers: An event study of the German electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5264-5271, September.
  7. Gugler, Klaus & Szücs, Florian, 2013. "Spillover effects in oligopolistic markets," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79905, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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