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Informational Cascades Elicit Private Information

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Author Info
Olivier Gossner
Nicolas Melissas

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Abstract

We introduce cheap talk in a dynamic investment model with information externalities. We first show how social learning adversely affects the credibility of cheap talk messages. Next, we show how an informational cascade makes thruthtelling incentive compatible. A separating equilibrium only exists for high surplus projects. Both an investment subsidy and an investment tax can increase welfare. The more precise the sender’s information, the higher her incentives to truthfully reveal her private information.

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG - (Informationskaskaden bei Investitionsentscheidungen)
Wir modellieren eine zweistufige dynamische Investitionsentscheidung mit Informationsexternalitäten und ‚Cheap Talk’. Dabei können wir zunächst zeigen, dass die Glaubwürdigkeit von 'Cheap Talk'-Aussagen darunter leidet, wenn die Investitionsentscheidung von solchen Informationen beeinflusst wird, die sich eher aus dem Handeln der Mitakteure als durch ihre verbalen Bekundungen ableiten. Dann zeigen wir, dass Informationskaskaden, die alle Akteure dieselbe Handlung aufgrund öffentlicher Information ohne Berücksichtigung ihrer privaten Informationen ausführen lassen, dazu führen, das Offenbaren der wahren Präferenzen der Investoren - optimistisch oder pessimistisch - anreizkompatibel zu machen. Vergleicht man Projekte mit niedrigen und hohen Überschüssen, existiert ein Trenngleichgewicht nur bei letzteren, so dass glaubwürdige Kommunikation eher über Worte als über Taten funktioniert. Will ein sozialer Planer die Investitionsentscheidungen beeinflussen, kann er sowohl durch eine Subventionierung als auch durch eine Besteuerung der Investitionen die Wohlfahrt vergrößern.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG) in its series CIG Working Papers with number SP II 2004-19.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in International Economic Review, 47(1), Feb.2006, 297-325.
Handle: RePEc:wzb:wzebiv:spii2004-19

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Related research
Keywords: Gravity Cheap Talk; Information Externality; Informational Cascades; Social Learning; Herd Behaviour;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Zwiebel, Jeffrey, 1995. "Corporate Conservatism and Relative Compensation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Olivier Gossner & Nicolas Melissas, 2004. "Informational Cascades Elicit Private Information," Game Theory and Information 0405007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Gill, D. & Sgroi, D., 2003. "Product Launches with Biased Reviewers: The Importance of Not Being Earnest," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0334, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  4. Farrell, Joseph & Gibbons, Robert, 1989. "Cheap talk can matter in bargaining," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 221-237, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Baliga, Sandeep & Morris, Stephen, 2002. "Co-ordination, Spillovers, and Cheap Talk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 450-468, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Sgroi, Daniel, 2002. "Optimizing Information in the Herd: Guinea Pigs, Profits, and Welfare," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 137-166, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chamley, Christophe, 2004. "Delays and equilibria with large and small information in social learning," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 477-501, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Farrell, Joseph, 1988. "Communication, coordination and Nash equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 209-214. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Joseph Farrell, 1987. "Cheap Talk, Coordination, and Entry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 18(1), pages 34-39, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Crawford, Vincent P & Sobel, Joel, 1982. "Strategic Information Transmission," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1431-51, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Olivier Gossner & Nicolas Melissas, 2004. "Informational Cascades Elicit Private Information," CIG Working Papers SP II 2004-19, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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