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Testing for Long Run Neutrality of Money in Mexico

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Author Info
Gary L. Shelley (East Tennessee State University)
Frederick H. Wallace (Universidad de Quintana Roo)

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Abstract

The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to investigate long run money neutrality in Mexico from 1932-2001. Long run neutrality is rejected for the full sample period. However, evidence suggests that the rejection is the result of a severe, downward shift in the mean growth rate of real GDP occurring at 1982. Neutrality is not rejected if post-1981 real GDP is adjusted for the change in mean growth or if one uses data only through 1981. The downward shift in mean real GDP growth followed sharp upward movements in the money and inflation series. This finding of non- neutrality in Mexico arising from extreme conditions is similar to that of Boschen and Otrok (1994) for the US.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0402003.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 02 Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0402003

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Windows2000; pages: 36
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Keywords: money neutrality Mexico

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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    Other versions:
  2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Olekalns, Nilss, 1996. "Some further evidence on the long-run neutrality of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 393-398, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-77, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Boschen, John F & Otrok, Christopher M, 1994. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1470-73, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Nora Lustig, 2001. "Life Is Not Easy: Mexico's Quest for Stability and Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 85-106, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 2003. " Inflation and the Informativeness of Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 177-96, April.
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  11. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
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  12. Wallace, Frederick H, 1999. "Long-Run Neutrality of Money in the Mexican Economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 637-39, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
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  14. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Junxi, 1998. "Endogenous growth and the welfare costs of inflation: a reconsideration," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 465-482, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  23. Haug, Alfred A & Lucas, Robert F, 1997. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 756-59, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Wallace, Fred & Cabrera-Castellanos, Luis F., 2006. "Long Run Money Neutrality in Guatemala," MPRA Paper 4025, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shelley, Gary & Wallace, Frederick, 2006. "Long run effects of money on real consumption and investment in the U.S," MPRA Paper 4136, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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