Bayesian Modelling of Catch in a Northwest Atlantic Fishery
AbstractWe model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used, the mesh size of the nets, etc.), are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log of catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to prediction of catch for single and aggregated ships.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0110003.
Date of creation: 06 Oct 2001
Date of revision: 18 Nov 2001
Note: Type of Document - Tex; prepared on MacOS, TeXtures; to print on any printer; figures: included. Revised for JRSS-C- (Applied Statistics). Data and f77 code available from:
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Bayesian Model Averaging; Choice of Regressors; Bayesian model averaging; Categorical variables; Grand Bank fishery; Modelling Fish Catch; Predictive inference; Probit model;
Other versions of this item:
- Carmen Fernández & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2002. "Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 51(3), pages 257-280.
- Carmen Fernandez & E. Ley & M. F. J. Steel, 2004. "Bayesian modelling of catch in a Northwest Atlantic Fishery," ESE Discussion Papers 67, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-10-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2001-10-09 (European Economics)
- NEP-MIC-2001-10-09 (Microeconomics)
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