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Statistical Modeling of Fishing Activities in the North Atlantic

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Author Info

  • Carmen Fernandez

    (CentER and Dept of Econometrics/Tilburg University/The Netherlands)

  • Eduardo Ley

    (FEDEA/Madrid/Spain)

  • Mark F.J. Steel

    (CentER and Dept of Econometrics/Tilburg University/The Netherlands)

Abstract

This paper deals with the issue of modeling daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We have data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the North Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics ---such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used, the mesh size of the nets, etc.---, are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. In all, our database leads to 23 possible regressors, resulting in a set of $8.4\times 10^6$ possible linear regression models. Prediction of future catches and posterior inference will be based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition (MC$^3$) approach. Particular attention is paid to the elicitation of the prior and the prediction of catch for single and aggregated observations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9712001.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 04 Dec 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9712001

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF 3.0; prepared on Textures 1.7, MacOS 8, Acrobat Distiller 3.0; to print on any printer; pages: 22; figures: included. (Data and code will be posted shortly.)
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Related research

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging; Grand Bank fisheries; Predictive inference; Prior elicitation;

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  1. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
  2. Chib, B. & Osiewalski, J. & Steel, M., 1990. "Regression Models Under Competing Covariance Matrices: A Baysian Perspective," Papers 9063, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  3. Eva Ferreira & Fernando Tusell, 1996. "Un modelo aditivo semiparamétrico para estimación de capturas: el caso de las pesquerías de Terranova," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 20(1), pages 143-157, January.
  4. Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993. "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
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