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A Critical View of Inflation Targeting: Crises, Limited Sustainability, and Aggregate Shocks

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  • Michael Kumhof

Abstract

November 2000 This paper presents a critical appraisal of inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime for emerging markets. It is shown that this policy, if understood as a strict commitment to a CPI inflation target, shares many features with exchange rate targeting and is quite different from inflexible exchange rates under money growth rules. Inflation targets are vulnerable to speculative attacks, although less so than exchange rate targets. They perform worse than exchange rate targets when policy sustainability is limited. And their relative performance under exogenous shocks, not surprisingly, depends on the nature and direction of those shocks. Given this lack of an obvious advantage over exchange rate targets, the real attraction of inflation targets may be that they give the policymaker discretion. This, in the context of many emerging markets, has to be a cause for concern. Keywords: intellectual property rights, copyright, sui generis protection of expressive material, economics of information-goods, open science, "fair use," scientific databases. JEL Classification: H4, K39, O31, O34 -->

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Stanford University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 00022.

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Date of creation: Nov 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:00022

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Keywords: intellectual property rights; copyright; sui generis protection of expressive material; economics of information-goods; open science;

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References

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  1. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini & Holger C. Wolf, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," Working Papers 93-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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  8. Eckstein, Z. & Leiderman, L., 1991. "Seignorage and the Welfare Cost of Inflation; Evidence from an Intertemporal Model of Money and Consumption," Papers 7-91, Tel Aviv.
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  14. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Roland Craigwell & Kevin Greenidge & Harold Codrington & DeLisle Worrell, 2003. "Economic Resilience with an Exchange Rate Peg: the Barbados Experience, 1985-2000," IMF Working Papers 03/168, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  3. Seedwell Hove & Albert Touna Mama & Fulbert Tchana Tchana, 2012. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 273, Economic Research Southern Africa.

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