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On the Benefits of Dollarization when Stabilization Policy is not Credible and Financial Markets are Imperfect

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza

Abstract

This paper examines two potential benefits that emerging economies may derive from dollarization. First, dollarization may eliminate distortions induced by the lack of credibility of monetary policy. Second, dollarization may weaken financial frictions that result in endogenous credit constraints. The analysis is based on numerical simulations of a two-sector dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated to Mexican data. The results indicate that policy uncertainty and credit constraints are very costly distortions. The mean welfare gains of eliminating policy uncertainty range between 6.4 and 9 percent of the trend level of consumption per capita. The mean welfare gain of weakening credit frictions is about 4.6 percent.

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "On the Benefits of Dollarization when Stabilization Policy is not Credible and Financial Markets are Imperfect," NBER Working Papers 7824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7824
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    Cited by:

    1. Aloisio Araujo & Marcia Leon, 2002. "Speculative Attacks on Debts, Dollarization and Optimum Currency Areas," Working Papers Series 40, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Ahmet Faruk Aysan, 2007. "Exchange Rates, Stabilisation Policy and Redistribution of Income," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 1(3), pages 267-298, July.
    3. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina, 2003. "What Does Really Discipline Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets?: the Role and Dynamics of Exchange Rate Regimes," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 165-192, July-Dece.
    4. Ahmet Faruk Aysan, 2006. "Distributional Effects of Boom-Bust Cycles in Developing Countries with FinancialFrictions," Working Papers 2006/10, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    5. Michael Kumhof, 2002. "A Critical View of Inflation Targeting: Crises, Limited Sustaintability, and Aggregate Shocks," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 8, pages 349-394, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Pavel Trunin & Sergey Narkevich, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble to Become Regional Reserve Currency," Working Papers 118, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    7. Artus P., 2001. "What Exchange - Rate System For Emerging Countries?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 27-60, January -.
    8. Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "On the Instability of Variance Decompositions of the Real Exchange Rate Across Exchange- Rate-Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," Working Papers 00-05, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    9. Álvaro Rojas O. & Felipe Jaque S., 2003. "Determinants of the Chilean Sovereign Spread: is it Purely Fundamentals?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 137-163, July-Dece.
    10. Paasche, Bernhard, 2001. "Credit constraints and international financial crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 623-650, December.
    11. Tamara Burdisso & Verónica Cohen Sabban & Laura D'Amato, 2003. "The Argentine Banking and Exchange Crisis of 2001: Can we Learn Something New About Financial Crisis?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 89-136, July-Dece.
    12. Craine, Roger, 2001. "Dollarization: An Irreversible Decision," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt404915zn, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    13. Alexander, Volbert & von Furstenberg, George M., 2000. "Monetary unions--a superior alternative to full dollarization in the long run," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 205-225, December.
    14. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk, 2006. "The Role of Distribution of the Income Shares of Individuals in Tradables and Nontradables on Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Delay of Stabilizations," MPRA Paper 5485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Golec, Pascal & Perotti, Enrico, 2017. "Safe assets: a review," Working Paper Series 2035, European Central Bank.
    16. Patrick Artus, 2003. "Local Currency or Foreign Currency Debt?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1013-1031.
    17. Mr. Guillermo Calvo & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Oya Celasun, 2002. "Nominal Exchange Rate Anchoring Under Inflation Inertia," IMF Working Papers 2002/030, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2005. "¿Es la dolarización oficial una opción real para las economías emergentes? [Is Official Dollarization a real option for emerging countries?]," MPRA Paper 54353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Narkevich, Siarhei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble as a Regional Reserve Currency," Published Papers dok2, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    20. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    21. Gerardo Licandro & José Antonio Licandro, 2003. "Building the Dedollarization Agenda: Lessons from the Uruguayan Case," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 193-218, July-Dece.
    22. Carlos Gustavo Machicado, 2006. "Welfare Gains from Optimal Policy in a Partially Dollarized Economy," Development Research Working Paper Series 10/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    23. Roger Craine, 2001. "Dollarization: An Irreversible Decision," International Finance 0103003, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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