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Speculative Attacks on Debts, Dollarization and Optimum Currency Areas

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  • Aloisio Araujo
  • Marcia Leon

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to contribute to the discussion of the financial aspects of dollarization and optimum currency areas. Based on the model of self-fulfilling debt crisis developed by Cole and Kehoe [4], it is possible to evaluate the comparative welfare of economies, which either keep their local currency and an independent monetary policy, join a monetary union or adopt dollarization. In the two former monetary regimes, governments can issue debt denominated, respectively, in local and common currencies, which is completely purchased by national consumers. Given this ability, governments may decide to impose an inflation tax on these assets and use the revenues so collected to avoid an external debt crises. While the country that issues its own currency takes this decision independently, a country belonging to a monetary union depends on the joint decision of all member countries about the common monetary policy. In this way, an external debt crises may be avoided under the local and common currency regimes, if, respectively, the national and the union central banks have the ability to do monetary policy, represented by the reduction in the real return on the bonds denominated in these currencies. This resource is not available under dollarization. In a dollarized economy, the loss of control over national monetary policy does not allow adjustments for exogenous shocks that asymmetrically affect the client and the anchor countries, but credibility is strengthened. On the other hand, given the ability to inflate the local currency, the central bank may be subject to the political influence of a government not so strongly concerned with fiscal discipline, which reduces the welfare of the economy. In a similar fashion, under a common currency regime, the union central bank may also be under the influence of a group of countries to inflate the common currency, even though they do not face external restrictions. Therefore, the local and common currencies could be viewed as a way to provide welfare enhancing bankruptcy, if it is not abused. With these peculiarities of monetary regimes in mind, we simulate the levels of economic welfare for each, employing recent data for the Brazilian economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 40.

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Date of creation: Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:40

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  1. Alberto Alesina & Vittorio Grilli, 1991. "The European Central Bank: Reshaping Monetary Politics in Europe," NBER Working Papers 3860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sargent, Thomas J, 2001. "Comment on Fiscal Consequences for Mexico of Adopting the Dollar," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 617-25, May.
  3. Felipe Morandé & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2000. "Chile's Peso: Better than (Just) Living with the Dollar?," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 37(110), pages 177-226.
  4. Rodrigo O. Valdés & Leonardo Hernández, 2001. "What Drives Contagion," IMF Working Papers 01/29, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "On the Benefits of Dollarization when Stabilization Policy is not Credible and Financial Markets are Imperfect," NBER Working Papers 7824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "On currency crises and contagion," Working Paper Series 0139, European Central Bank.
  8. Aloisio Araujo & M�rio Rui P�scoa & Juan Pablo Torres-Mart�nez, 2002. "Collateral Avoids Ponzi Schemes in Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1613-1638, July.
  9. Hernandez, Leonardo F. & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2001. "What drives contagion: Trade, neighborhood, or financial links?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 203-218.
  10. Ilan Goldfajn & Gino Olivares, 2000. "Is adopting Full Dollarization the solution? Looking at the evidence," Textos para discussão 416, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  11. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
  12. Russell W. Cooper & Hubert Kempf., 2001. "Dollarization and the conquest of hyperinflation in divided societies," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 3-12.
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Cited by:
  1. Sergio R. S. Souza & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2008. "Long-Range Dependence In Exchange Rates: The Case Of The European Monetary System," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(02), pages 199-223.
  2. Marcelo Y. Takami & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Evaluation of Default Risk for The Brazilian Banking Sector," Working Papers Series 135, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Solange Gouvea, 2007. "Price Rigidity in Brazil: Evidence from CPI Micro Data," Working Papers Series 143, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Evidence For Brazil," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(08), pages 1377-1396.
  5. Barbara Alemanni & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2006. "Herding Behavior by Equity Foreign Investors on Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series 125, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Mirta Noemí Sataka Bugarin & Roberto de Goes Ellery Jr. & Victor Gomes Silva & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2005. "Steady State Analysis of an Open Economy General Equilibrium Model for Brazil," Working Papers Series 92, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Aloísio P. Araújo & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2006. "Contagion, Bankruptcy and Social Welfare Analysis in a Financial Economy with Risk Regulation Constraint," Working Papers Series 118, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  8. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2006. "Interdependence and Contagion: an Analysis of Information Transmission in Latin America's Stock Markets," Working Papers Series 112, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2002. "An Operational Definition of Price Stability," Working Papers Series 35, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  10. Gilneu F. A. Vivan & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "A New Proposal for Collection and Generation of Information on Financial Institutions' Risk: the case of derivatives," Working Papers Series 133, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  12. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2002. "Estimating Brazilian Potential Output: A Production Function Approach," Working Papers Series 17, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  13. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Eduardo Saliby & Joséte Florencio do Santos, 2006. "Out-Of-The_Money Monte Carlo Simulation Option Pricing: the join use of Importance Sampling and Descriptive Sampling," Working Papers Series 116, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  14. Maria da Glória D. S. Araújo & Mirta Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo C. Silva, 2006. "The Effect of Adverse Supply Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output," Working Papers Series 103, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  15. Ana Carla A. Costa & João M. P. de Mello, 2006. "Judicial Risk and Credit Market Performance: Micro Evidence from Brazil Payroll Loans," Working Papers Series 102, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  16. Maurício S. Bugarin & Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2005. "Comment on Market Discipline and Monetary Policy by Carl Walsh," Working Papers Series 95, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  17. Ricardo Schechtman, 2007. "Joint Validation of Credit Rating PDs under Default Correlation," Working Papers Series 149, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  18. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  19. Marta Areosa & Waldyr Areosa, 2006. "The Inequality Channel of Monetary Transmission," Working Papers Series 114, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  20. Flávia Mourão Graminho, 2006. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Brazilian "Lost-Decades"," Working Papers Series 123, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  21. Rodrigo Andrés de Souza Peñaloza, 2003. "On Shadow-Prices of Banks in Real-Time Gross Settlement Systems," Working Papers Series 71, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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