After Two Decades of Integration: How Interdependent are Eastern European Economies and the Euro Area?
AbstractThis article investigates the interrelations between the initial members of the Euro area and five important Central and Eastern European economies. We set up a theoretical open economy model to derive the Purchasing Power Parity, the Interest Rate Parity, the Fisher Inflation Parity, and an output gap relation. After taking convergence into account, they are used as restrictions on the cointegration space of a structural vector error correction model. We then employ generalized impulse response analysis to assess the dynamic effects of shocks in output and interest rates on the respective other area as well as the implications of shocks in the exchange rate and in relative prices on both areas. The results show a high degree of interconnectedness between the two economies. There are strong positive spillovers in output to the respective other region with the magnitude of the impact being similarly strong in both areas. Furthermore, we find a multiplier effect being present in Eastern Europe and some evidence for the European Central Banks’ desire towards price stability.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number wuwp138.
Date of creation: Mar 2012
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European Economic Integration; Structural Vector Error Correction Model; Generalized Impulse Response Analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-05-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2012-05-15 (European Economics)
- NEP-MON-2012-05-15 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2012-05-15 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2012-05-15 (Transition Economics)
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Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- How integrated are Eastern and Western Europe now?
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2012-05-24 14:10:00
by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-05-31 07:00:00
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