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The process of convergence towards the euro for the Visegrad-4 countries

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  • Giuliana Passamani

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    Abstract

    The aim of the paper is to analyze the foreign transmission mechanism between each of the Visegrad-4 countries and the eurozone, through an empirical analysis of the basic international parity conditions linking Czech, Hungarian, Polish and Slovakian inflations and interest rates with the ones of the current euro area members. The focus of the analysis is to show the differences among these catching-up economies, with particular attention to their process of convergence towards the eurozone economy. For reasons due to the availability of data, the sample covers the last decade. We use the cointegrated VAR model to define longrun stationary relations as well as common stochastic trends. The methodology adopted is properly apt to uncover the dynamic structure underlying the stochastic behaviour of prices, interest rates and exchange rate. Of particular interest is the empirical finding that the parities do not hold on their own, as expected, but that weaker form of the same parities, or linear combinations of them, hold in our data set, with some differences for each country. Also the process of convergence is different: the Czech Republic seems to have reached a relative convergence, while for the other countries we have that the process show a tendency towards convergence.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 0825.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:trn:utwpde:0825

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    Keywords: Visegrad_4 countries; PPP; UIP; RIP; Cointegrated VAR; Convergence;

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    1. MacDonald, Ronald, 1993. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity: Is It for Real?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 690-95, November.
    2. Balazs Egert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," CESifo Working Paper Series 1739, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Kevin D. Hoover & Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 251-55, May.
    4. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Prettner, Catherine & Prettner, Klaus, 2014. "How interdependent are Eastern European economies and the Euro area?," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 187, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Catherine Prettner & Klaus Prettner, 2012. " After Two Decades of Integration: How Interdependent are Eastern European Economies and the Euro Area?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp138, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.

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