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The Term Structure Of Currency Hedge Ratios

Author

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  • OLAF KORN

    (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen and Centre for Financial Research Cologne (CFR), Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, D-37073 Göttingen, Germany)

  • PHILIPP KOZIOL

    (Deutsche Bundesbank and Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14, D-60431 Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

Abstract

This paper investigates the variance minimizing currency forward hedge of an exporting firm that is exposed to different sources of risk. In an empirical study, we quantify the corresponding hedge ratios of a "typical" German firm for different hedge horizons. Based on cointegrated vector autoregressive models of prices, interest rates and exchange rates, we show that hedge ratios decrease substantially with the hedge horizon for different currencies, reaching values of one half or less for a ten-years horizon. Our findings can partly explain underhedging of long-term exchange rate exposures and have important implications for the design of risk management strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Olaf Korn & Philipp Koziol, 2011. "The Term Structure Of Currency Hedge Ratios," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(04), pages 525-557.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:14:y:2011:i:04:n:s0219024911006723
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024911006723
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    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Katarina Juselius & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "International Parity Relationships between Germany and the United States: A Joint Modelling Approach," Discussion Papers 00-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    4. Adam-Müller, Axel F.A. & Nolte, Ingmar, 2011. "Cross hedging under multiplicative basis risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2956-2964, November.
    5. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
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    Cited by:

    1. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
    2. Mukrim, Anis & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "The impact of macroeconomic variables on the crude palm oil export: Malaysian evidence based on ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 111740, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate risk management; foreign exchange risk; hedging; cointegrated VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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