Distributional effects of WTO agricultural reforms in rich and poor countries
AbstractRich countries'agricultural trade policies are the battleground on which the future of the WTO's troubled Doha Round will be determined. Subject to widespread criticism, they nonetheless appear to be almost immune to serious reform, and one of their most common defenses is that they protect poor farmers. The authors'findings reject this claim. The analysis uses detailed data on farm incomes to show that major commodity programs are highly regressive in the United States, and that theonly serious losses under trade reform are among large, wealthy farmers in a few heavily protected subsectors. In contrast, analysis using household data from 15 developing countries indicates that reforming rich countries'agricultural trade policies would lift large numbers of developing country farm households out of poverty. In the majority of cases these gains are not outweighed by the poverty-increasing effects of higher food prices among other households. Agricultural reforms that appear feasible, even under an ambitious Doha Round, achieve only a fraction of the benefits for developing countries that full liberalization promises, but protect U.S. large farms from most of the rigors of adjustment. Finally, the analysis indicates that maximal trade-led poverty reductions occur when developing countries participate more fully in agricultural trade liberalization.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4060.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Rural Poverty Reduction; Economic Theory&Research; Population Policies; Achieving Shared Growth;
Other versions of this item:
- Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2007. "Distributional effects of WTO agricultural reforms in rich and poor countries," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 22, pages 289-337, 04.
- Hertel, Thomas & Keeney, Roman & Ivanic, Maros & Winters, Alan, 2006. "Distributional Effects of WTO Agricultural Reforms in Rich and Poor Countries," GTAP Working Papers 2185, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- NEP-AFR-2006-11-18 (Africa)
- NEP-AGR-2006-11-18 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2006-11-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2006-11-18 (Development)
- NEP-INT-2006-11-18 (International Trade)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tarp Jensen, Henning & Tarp, Finn, 2004.
"Trade Liberalization and Spatial Inequality: A Methodological Innovation in Vietnamese Perspective,"
Working Paper Series
UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Henning Tarp Jensen & Finn Tarp, 2005. "Trade Liberalization and Spatial Inequality: a Methodological Innovation in a Vietnamese Perspective," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 69-86, 02.
- Hertel, Thomas W. & Reimer, Jeffrey J., 2004.
"Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3444, The World Bank.
- Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
- Thomas Hertel & Jeffrey Reimer, 2005. "Predicting the poverty impacts of trade reform," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 377-405.
- Jeffrey Reimer & Thomas Hertel, 2004. "Estimation of International Demand Behaviour for Use with Input-Output Based Data," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 347-366.
- Harald Grethe, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 591-595, December.
- Emini, Christian Arnault & Cockburn, John & Decaluwe, Bernard, 2005.
"The poverty impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon : the role of tax policy,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3746, The World Bank.
- Christian Arnault Emini & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwe, 2005. "The Poverty Impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon: the Role of Tax Policy," Working Papers MPIA 2005-04, PEP-MPIA.
- Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
- Anderson, Kym, 1995.
"Lobbying Incentives and the Pattern of Protection in Rich and Poor Countries,"
Economic Development and Cultural Change,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(2), pages 401-23, January.
- Anderson, Kym, 1993. "Lobbying Incentives and the Pattern of Protection in Rich and Poor Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006.
"Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda,"
World Bank Publications,
The World Bank, number 6889, October.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(9), pages 1301-1327, 09.
- Kym Anderson & Will Martin, 2005. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-17, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will, 2005. "Agricultural trade reform and the Doha development agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3607, The World Bank.
- Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "The impact on Russia of WTO accession and the Doha agenda : the importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in services for growth and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3725, The World Bank.
- Gardner, Bruce L, 1992. "Changing Economic Perspectives on the Farm Problem," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 62-101, March.
- Bruce L. Gardner, 2000. "Economic Growth and Low Incomes in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1059-1074.
- L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March.
- Finger, J Michael, 1981. "Policy Research," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1270-71, December.
- Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 29-57.
- Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2002. "Trade Policy Options for Chile: The Importance of Market Access," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(1), pages 49-79, June.
- Ravallion, Martin, 1997.
"Can high-inequality developing countries escape absolute poverty?,"
Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 51-57, September.
- Ravallion, Martin, 1997. "Can high-inequality developing countries escape absolute poverty?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1775, The World Bank.
- Joseph Francois & Hans van Meijl & Frank van Tongeren, 2005. "Trade liberalization in the Doha Development Round," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 349-391, 04.
- J. A. L. Cranfield & James S. Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 353-364, 04.
- Winters, L Alan, 1987. "The Political Economy of the Agricultural Policy of Industrial," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 285-304.
- Banerjee, Abhijit Vinayak & Benabou, Roland & Mookherjee, Dilip, 2006. "Understanding Poverty," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195305203.
- Cranfield, J. A. L. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2004. "Simultaneous estimation of an implicit directly additive demand system and the distribution of expenditure--an application of maximum entropy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 361-385, March.
- L. Alan Winters, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9), pages 1339-1367, 09.
- Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr,David & Gurgel, Angelo, 2003. "Regional, multilateral, and unilateral trade policies on MERCOSUR for growth and poverty reduction in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3051, The World Bank.
- Todd Kuethe & Mitch Morehart, 2012. "The Agricultural Resource Management Survey: An information system for production agriculture," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 72(2), pages 191-200, July.
- Francis Ng & M.Ataman Aksoy, 2013. "Who Are the Net Food Importing Countries?," Working Papers 2013/1, Turkish Economic Association.
- Hess, Sebastian & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von & Sperlich, Stefan, 2010. "Numbers for Pascal: explaining differences in the estimated benefits of the Doha Development Agenda," DARE Discussion Papers 1001, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
- Hess, Sebastian & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2007. "Assessing general and partial equilibrium simulations of Doha round outcomes using meta-analysis," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 67, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- World Bank, 2009. "Strengthening Bolivian Competitiveness : Export Diversification and Inclusive Growth," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2656, October.
- Diao, Xinshen & Fan, Shenggen & Headey, Derek & Johnson, Michael & Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Yu, Bingxin, 2008. "Accelerating Africa's food production in response to rising food prices: Impacts and requisite actions," IFPRI discussion papers 825, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Ng, Francis & Aksoy, M. Ataman, 2008. "Who are the net food importing countries ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4457, The World Bank.
- Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2009. "The Poverty Impacts of Global Commodity Trade Liberalization," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 52786, World Bank.
- Francesco Caracciolo & Fabio Santeramo, 2013.
"Price Trends and Income Inequalities: Will Sub-Saharan Africa Reduce the Gap?,"
African Development Review,
African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 42-54.
- Francesco Caracciolo & Fabio Gaetano Santeramo, 2013. "Price Trends and Income Inequalities: Will Sub-Saharan Africa Reduce the Gap?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 42-54, 03.
- Caracciolo, Francesco & Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2012. "Price trends and income inequalities: will Sub-Saharan-Africa reduce the gap?," MPRA Paper 45196, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jayne, T.S. & Mather, David & Mghenyi, Elliot, 2010. "Principal Challenges Confronting Smallholder Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 1384-1398, October.
- Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade policy reforms in the new agricultural context: Is regional integration a priority for Sub-Saharan African countries agricultural-led industrialization? Insights from a global computable general," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126546, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Verma, Monika & Hertel, Thomas W., 2009.
"Commodity Price Volatility and Nutrition Vulnerability,"
2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
49344, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Verma, Monika & Hertel, Thomas W., 2009. "Commodity price volatility and nutrition vulnerability:," IFPRI discussion papers 895, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
- Balagtas, Joseph Valdes & Bhandari, Humnath & Mohanty, Samarendu & Cabrera, Ellanie & Hossain, Mahabub, 2012. "Impact of a Commodity Price Spike on Poverty Dynamics: Evidence from a Panel of Rural Households in Bangladesh," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 124225, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Keeney, Roman & Beckman, Jayson F., 2007. "WTO Impacts on US Rice Producing Households," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34812, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
- Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade policies and agricultural exports of Sub-Saharan African countries: Some stylized facts and perspectives," MPRA Paper 40962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Keeney, Roman & Beckman, Jayson, 2009. "WTO negotiations on agriculture and the distributional impacts for US rice farm households," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 70-80, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.