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The impact on Russia of WTO accession and the Doha agenda : the importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in services for growth and poverty reduction

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  • Rutherford, Thomas
  • Tarr, David
  • Shepotylo, Oleksandr

Abstract

Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They compare those results with the impact of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. The model incorporates all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as"real"households. Crucially, given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization as part of Russian WTO accession, the authors also include FDI and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from liberalization of import barriers against goods and FDI in services. The authors estimate that Russian WTO accession in the medium run will result in gains averaged over all Russian households equal to 7.3 percent of Russian consumption (with a standard deviation of 2.2 percent of consumption), with virtually all households gaining. They find that global free trade would result in a weighted average gain to households in Russia of 0.2 percent of consumption, with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption, while a successful completion of the Doha Development Agenda would result in a weighted average gain to households of -0.3 percent of consumption (with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption). Russia, as a net food importer, loses from subsidy elimination, and the gains to Russia from tariff cuts in other countries are too small to offset these losses. The results strongly support the view that Russia's own liberalization is more important than improvements in market access as a result of reforms in tariffs or subsidies in the rest of the world. Foremost among the own reforms is liberalization of barriers against FDI in business services.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3725.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3725

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT; World Trade Organization; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Trade and Services;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ahmed, Vaqar & O' Donoghue, Cathal, 2007. "CGE-Microsimulation Modelling: A Survey," MPRA Paper 9307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Applied General Equilibrium Models: Overview of the Literature," CPB Memorandum 169, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Thomas W. Hertel & Roman Keeney & Maros Ivanic & L. Alan Winters, 2007. "Distributional effects of WTO agricultural reforms in rich and poor countries," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 22, pages 289-337, 04.
  4. Elisabeth Christen & Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2012. "CGE modeling of market access in services," Working Papers 2012-13, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  5. Chisari, Omar O. & Maquieyra, Javier & Romero, Carlos A., 2009. "Liberalization of trade in services: A CGE analysis for Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay," MPRA Paper 15336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Sviltana Taran, 2008. "ENEPO: EU Eastern Neighbourhood - Economic Potential and Future Development," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0371, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  7. Shepotylo Oleksandr & Vakhitov Volodymyr, 2012. "Impact of services liberalization on productivity of manufacturing firms: evidence from Ukrainian firm-level data," EERC Working Paper Series 12/01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  8. Shepotylo, Oleksandr & Vakhitov, Volodymyr, 2012. "Services liberalization and productivity of manufacturing firms : evidence from Ukraine," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5944, The World Bank.
  9. Maryla Maliszewska & Irina Orlova & Svitlana Taran, 2009. "Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia," CASE Network Reports 0088, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  10. Christen, Elisabeth & Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Market Access in Services," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  11. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Verweij. G., 2007. "Opening services markets within Europe; modelling foreign establishments in a CGE framework," CPB Discussion Paper 80, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  12. Hoekman, Bernard & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2008. "Services trade and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4461, The World Bank.
  13. Péter Benczúr & Gábor Kátay & Áron Kiss, 2012. "Assessing changes of the Hungarian tax and transfer system: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach," MNB Working Papers 2012/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  14. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2006. "Productivity Effects of FDI Inflows: A Literature Review," CPB Memorandum 170, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  15. Benedictow, Andreas & Fjærtoft, Daniel & Løfsnæs, Ole, 2013. "Oil dependency of the Russian economy: An econometric analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 400-428.
  16. Itzhak Goldberg & John Gabriel Goddard & Smita Kuriakose & Jean-Louis Racine, 2011. "Igniting Innovation : Rethinking the Role of Government in Emerging Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2358, January.
  17. Francois, Joseph & Manchin, Miriam & Tomberger, Patrick, 2013. "Services linkages and the value added content of trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6432, The World Bank.
  18. Andreas Benedictow & Daniel Fjærtoft & Ole Løfsnæs, 2010. "Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis," Discussion Papers 617, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  19. Tarr, David, 2007. "Russian WTO accession : what has been accomplished, what can be expected," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4428, The World Bank.

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