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Poverty impacts of a WTO agreement : synthesis and overview

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Author Info
Hertel, Thomas W.
Winters, L. Alan

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Abstract

This paper reports on the findings from a major international research project investigating the poverty impacts of a potential Doha Development Agenda (DDA). It combines in a novel way the results from several strands of research. Intensive analysis of the DDA Framework Agreement pays particularly close attention to potential reforms in agriculture. The scenarios are built up using newly available tariff line data and their implications for world markets are established using a global modeling framework. These world trade impacts, in turn, form the basis for 12 country case studies of the national poverty impacts of these DDA scenarios. The focus countries include Bangladesh, Brazil (two studies), Cameroon, China (two studies), Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, the Philippines, Russia, and Zambia. The diversity of approaches taken in these studies allows the paper to reflect local conditions and priorities and illustrates many important facets of the trade and poverty link. It does, however, limit the ability to draw broader conclusions. Thus an additional study provides a 15-country cross-section analysis, and a global analysis provides estimates for the world as a whole.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3757.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3757

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Related research
Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction; Poverty Assessment; Free Trade; Economic Theory&Research; Achieving Shared Growth;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr,David & Gurgel, Angelo, 2003. "Regional, multilateral, and unilateral trade policies on MERCOSUR for growth and poverty reduction in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3051, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Balat, Jorge F. & Porto, Guido G., 2005. "The WTO Doha Round, cotton sector dynamics, and poverty trends in Zambia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3697, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Terrie L. Walmsley & Thomas W. Hertel & Elena Ianchovichina, 2006. "Assessing The Impact Of China'S Wto Accession On Investment," Pacific Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 315-339, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mattoo, Aaditya & Rathindran, Randeep & Subramanian, Arvind, 2001. "Measuring services trade liberalization and its impact on economic growth : an illustration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2655, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. repec:fth:guelph:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Christian Arnault Emini & John Cockburn & Bernard Decaluwe, 2005. "The Poverty Impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon: the Role of Tax Policy," Cahiers de recherche MPIA 2005-04, PEP-MPIA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. McKitrick, Ross R., 1998. "The econometric critique of computable general equilibrium modeling: the role of functional forms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 543-573, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nicita, Alessandro, 2005. "Multilateral trade liberalization and Mexican households : the effect of the Doha development agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3707, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira & Horridge, Mark, 2005. "The Doha Round, poverty, and regional inequality in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3701, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Arndt, Channing, 2005. "The Doha Trade Round and Mozambique," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3717, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Nicita, Alessandro, 2004. "Who benefited from trade liberalization in Mexico? Measuring the effects on household welfare," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3265, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Dimaranan, Betina & Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2003. "OECD Domestic Support and the Developing Countries," GTAP Working Papers 1161, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. L. Alan Winters & Neil McCulloch & Andrew McKay, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 72-115, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An evaluation of the performance of applied general equilibrium models of the impact of NAFTA," Staff Report 320, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Kuiper, Marijke & van Tongeren, Frank, 2005. "Growing together or growing apart ? a village level study of the impact of the Doha Round on rural China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3696, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Francois, Joseph & Horn, Henrik, 2001. "Introduction," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages iii-iv, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Zhai, Fan & Hertel, Thomas, 2005. "Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda on China : the role of labor markets and complementary education reforms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3702, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
  19. Thomas W. Hertel & Will Martin, 2000. "Liberalising Agriculture and Manufactures in a Millennium Round:Implications for Developing Countries," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(04), pages 455-469, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Robilliard, Anne-Sophie & Robinson, Sherman, 2005. "The social impact of a WTO agreement in Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3747, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  21. Winters, L. Alan, 2000. "Trade, Trade Policy and Poverty: What Are The Links?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dilip Das, 2006. "Lean Hong Kong Harvest and the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," Global Economic Review, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 363-378, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Fleming, Euan & Fleming, Pauline, 2007. "Evidence on trends in the single factoral terms of trade in African agricultural commodity production," 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University 7980, Agricultural Economics Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Buys, Piet & Deichmann, Uwe & Wheeler, David, 2006. "Road network upgrading and overland trade expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4097, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jean-Jacques Hallaert, 2005. "Special Agricultural Safeguards: Virtual Benefits and Real Costs-Lessons for the Doha Round," IMF Working Papers 05/131, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rina Oktaviani & Eka Puspitawati & Haryadi, 2008. "Impacts of ASEAN Agricultural Trade Liberalization on ASEAN-6 Economies and Income Distribution in Indonesia," Working Papers 5108, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada.. [Downloadable!]
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