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Trade Liberalization and the Dynamics of Poverty in Tunisia: a Layered CGE Microsimulation Analysis/Libéralisation des échanges et dynamique de la pauvreté en Tunisie: Analyse avec une micro-simulation séquentielle

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  • Sami Bibi
  • Rim Chatti

Abstract

The effects of trade liberalization on poverty in Tunisia are examined, using a layered dynamic CGE-microsimulation approach. A dynamic CGE model endogenously generates the evolution of prices, as well as income paths under protection and freer trade assumptions for each household group. These results are then used to assess the change in real income of each household, using a sample from the 1995 household survey, and thus the effects of the simulated changes on poverty. Dominance tests are also used to avoid the arbitrariness of choosing line and a poverty measure. Simulation results show that trade openness slows down the poverty reduction in the short run, but enhances it in the long-run/Une analyse dynamique des effets de la libéralisation commerciale montre que celle-ci n'entraînera pas, contrairement aux cas précédents, une augmentation de la pauvreté en Tunisie. Néanmoins, l'ouverture commerciale freinera probablement la dynamique de la réduction de la pauvreté à court terme mais, l'accélèrera à long terme. La baisse de la pauvreté touchera aussi bien les ménages urbains que ruraux, avec une plus faible réduction de la pauvreté rurale à court et à long terme. Pour comprendre ce résultat, il faut d'abord noter que la Tunisie, comme dans la plupart des autres pays, impose des taux de protection plus élevés sur les produits agricoles que sur les produits industriels; pendant que les branches industrielles, notamment celle des services, contribuent davantage aux recettes d'exportation. Par conséquent, la libéralisation commerciale entraîne une expansion plus rapide du secteur des services par rapport aux autres branches industrielles et au secteur agricole. Cela engendre un taux de croissance du revenu nominal des ouvriers et des exploitants agricoles plus faible que celui des autres ménages urbains. Les prix à la consommation croient plus faiblement pour les ménages urbains, qui consomment davantage de produits industriels et des services, que pour les ménages ruraux, qui consomment plus de produits alimentaires. Tous ces résultats font que l'amélioration du revenu réel, qui touche toutes les catégories des ménages, est légèrement plus importante pour les ménages urbains.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by PEP-MPIA in its series Working Papers MPIA with number 2006-07.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2006-07

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Keywords: Trade liberalization; poverty; dynamic CGE models; sequential microsimulation; Tunisia/Libéralisation des échanges; pauvreté; modèles d'EGC dynamiques; micro-simulation séquentielle; Tunisie;

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