NAFTA's Implications for EastAsian exports
AbstractSeveral studies have quantified the influence of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the earlier Canada - United States Free Trade Agreement on member countries. Less attention has been paid to their effects on nonmembers. The authors try to quantify NAFTA's third-party effects on East Asia using a partial equilibrium trade model and a gravity flow model. They identify and focus on East Asian export sectors that are especially at risk of trade diversion. Their results suggest that the NAFTA-induced trade diversion losses could range from $380 million to $700 million. The larger figure represents less than 1 percent of East Asia's nonoil exports to the United States. Their analysis also indicates that losses would be concentrated in a few sectors - such as textiles, clothing, and ferrous metals - where high U.S. trade barriers exist. A larger share of Hong Kong and Macau trade would be diverted than trade in other East Asian economies because textiles and clothing represent a larger share of their exports. Economies specializing in such products as machinery and equipment (Singapore) would have relatively little trade diverted. East Asia's trade losses might be reduced by roughly half once the results of the Uruguay Round are implemented because that will lower the preference margins NAFTA members can extend to each other. To put things in perspective: the trade losses East Asian economies might incur because of NAFTA are roughly 1 percent of the gains they will receive from successful implementation of the Uruguay Round results.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1351.
Date of creation: 31 Aug 1994
Date of revision:
Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Trade Policy; Trade and Regional Integration; TF054105-DONOR FUNDED OPERATION ADMINISTRATION FEE INCOME AND EXPENSE ACCOUNT;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- TF0 - - - - - -
- FUN - International Economics - - - - -
- OPE - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - - - -
- ADM - General Economics and Teaching - - - - -
- FEE - International Economics - - - - -
- INC - Health, Education, and Welfare - - - - -
- AND - General Economics and Teaching - - - - -
- EXP - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - - - -
- ACC - General Economics and Teaching - - - - -
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brown, Drusilla K. & Stern, Robert M., 1992. "Some conceptual issues in the modeling and computational analysis of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
- Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
- Erzan, Refik & Holmes, Christopher & Safadi, Raed, 1992. "How changes in the former CMEA area may affect international trade in manufactures," Policy Research Working Paper Series 973, The World Bank.
- André Sapir & Robert Baldwin, 1983.
"India and the Tokyo round,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/8274, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 1991. "A North American Free Trade Agreement: Analytical Issues and A Computational Assessment," Working Papers 289, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Timothy J. Kehoe, 1992. "Modeling the dynamic impact of North American free trade," Working Papers 491, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March.
- André Sapir, 1981. "Trade benefits under the EEC generalized system of preferences," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8290, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Havrylyshyn, Oleh & Pritchett, Lant, 1991. "European trade patterns after the transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 748, The World Bank.
- Grennes, Thomas J. & Estrada, Julio Hernandez & Krissoff, Barry & Matus Gardea, Jaime Arturo & Sharples, Jerry A. & Valdes, Constanza, 1991. "An Analysis Of A United States-Canada-Mexico Free Trade Agreement," Commissioned Papers 14616, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
- Srivastava, Rajendra K & Green, Robert T, 1986. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 623-40, October.
- Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose A, 1985. "Economic Integration among Developed, Developing and Centrally Planned Economies: A Comparative Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 549-56, November.
- McDonald, John F & Moffitt, Robert A, 1980. "The Uses of Tobit Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 318-21, May.
- Anne O. Krueger, 1993. "Free Trade Agreements as Protectionist Devices: Rules of Origin," NBER Working Papers 4352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Zhi, 1995.
"Beyond the Uruguay Round: The implications of an Asian free trade area,"
China Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 35-90.
- Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman & Zhi Wang, 1995. "Beyond the Uruguay Round : the implications of an Asian free trade area," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1467, The World Bank.
- Robinson, Sherman & Lewis, Jeffrey D., 1996. "Partners or predators? : the impact of regional trade liberalization on Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1626, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.