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Modeling the dynamic impact of North American free trade

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Author Info
Timothy J. Kehoe

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Abstract

The current tool of choice for analyzing the impact of a potential North American Free Trade Agreement on the economies of Canada, Mexico, and the United States is the static applied general equilibrium model. Although this type of model can do a good job in analyzing, and even in predicting, the impact of trade liberalization or tax reform on relative prices and resource allocation over a short time horizon, it does not attempt to capture the impact of government policy on growth rates. For this we need a dynamic model. This paper outlines some of the issues that confront a researcher interested in building a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the potential economic impact of a NAFTA, including the impact on growth rates. Simple calculations based on preliminary empirical work indicate that the dynamic benefits of increased openness could dwarf the static benefits found by more conventional applied general equilibrium models.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Working Papers with number 491.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:491

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Baldwin, Richard E, 1992. "Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 162-74, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Stokey, Nancy L, 1988. "Learning by Doing and the Introduction of New Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 701-17, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kehoe, Timothy J & Polo, Clemente & Sancho, Ferran, 1995. "An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 115-41, June.
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  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1989. "Product Development and International Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1261-83, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  9. repec:fth:michin:289 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Havrylyshyn, Oli & Civan, Engin, 1985. "Intra-industry trade among developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 253-271, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Young, Alwyn, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 1991. "A North American Free Trade Agreement: Analytical Issues and A Computational Assessment," Working Papers 289, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  14. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Rivera-Batiz, Luis A. & Romer, Paul M., 1991. "International trade with endogenous technological change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 971-1001, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000525, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Braga, Carlos A. Primo & Safadi, Raed & Yeats, Alexander, 1994. "NAFTA's Implications for EastAsian exports," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1351, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Julio Huato, 2005. "Maquiladoras and Standard of Living in Mexico Before and After NAFTA," Development and Comp Systems 0508006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sven Arndt, 1996. "North American Free Trade: An assessment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 77-92, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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