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Struktur und Potentiale des Agraraußenhandels Mittel- und Osteuropas

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  • Fock, Achim
  • von Ledebur, Oliver
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    Abstract

    Dieses Diskussionspapier analysiert die Agrarhandelsstruktur der mittel- und osteuropäischen Länder (MOEL) seit dem Beginn des Transformationsprozesses und schätzt die Potentiale im Agrarhandel insbesondere im Hinblick auf einen Beitritt dieser Länder zu Europäischen Union (EU) ab. Die Messung der relativen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des Agrarsektors zeigt, daß die MOEL insgesamt einen komparativen Vorteil im landwirtschaftlichen Sektor besitzen. Insbesondere für den Fall einer Angleichung des Protektionsniveaus zwischen MOEL und EU dürften diese komparativen Vorteile zu einer deutlichen Stärkung der Agrarhandelsposition beitragen. Der zu erwartende politische Druck einer solchen Entwicklung dürfte auch insofern erheblich sein, als zwischen EU und Ländern der ersten Beitrittsrunde wie Ungarn und Tschechien eine starke Wettbewerbsintensität im Agrarhandel herrscht. Potentiale im Agrarhandel lassen sich durch grundlegende Faktoren wie Einkommen, Bevölkerung und Boden abschätzen. Mit Hilfe eines Gravitationsmodells konnte die Erklärungskraft dieser Faktoren sowie der Einfluß der Entfernung zwischen Handelspartnern und ihrer Zugehörigkeit zu Integrationsblöcken für den Agraraußenhandel gezeigt werden. Durch diesen ökonometrischen Ansatz wurde weiterhin die Hypothese eines langfristig großen Agrarhandelspotentials der MOEL mit der EU gestützt. Es zeigt sich, daß insbesondere ein erhebliches Export der MOEL in die EU besteht, während mit einer deutlichen langfristigen Ausweitung der Agrarimporte der MOEL aus der EU nur bei einem Beitritt zu rechnen ist. -- E N G L I S H V E R S I O N: This paper analyzes agricultural trade developments in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) since the beginning of the transformation process, and estimates CEEC agricultural trade potentials. The competitiveness of the agricultural sector as a whole is quantified using revealed comparative advantage indices. These indicate a comparative advantage for the CEEC in the agricultural sector. This strength is likely to accelerate CEEC agricultural trade growth which started in 1993. Such a development could yield in high political pressure since some of the countries of the first EU accession round like Hungary or the Czech Republic show a high complementarity in their agricultural trade with EU. Some basic factors such as income, population and agricultural land can explain agricultural trade potentials. This could be shown using a gravity model, which reveals the significance and direction of the variables mentioned and others such as distance and membership of regional blocs. The gravity model is then used to roughly estimate the long-term trade potentials of trade between the CEEC and the EU. Export potentials are relatively high, whereas agricultural imports are likely to increase only in an EU accession scenario potential.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO) in its series IAMO Discussion Papers with number 14.

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    Date of creation: 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:iamodp:14914

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    Cited by:
    1. Levkovych, Inna, 2011. "Der ukrainische Außenhandel mit Produkten der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft: Eine quantitative Analyse aus Sicht traditioneller und neuer Außenhandelstheorien," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe, Leib­niz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), volume 59, number 109520.

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