This paper analyzes agricultural trade developments in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) since the beginning of the transformation process, and estimates CEEC agricultural trade potentials. The competitiveness of the agricultural sector as a whole is quantified using revealed comparative advantage indices. These indicate a comparative advantage for the CEEC in the agricultural sector. This strength is likely to accelerate CEEC agricultural trade growth which started in 1993. Such a development could yield in high political pressure since some of the countries of the first EU accession round like Hungary or the Czech Republic show a high complementarity in their agricultural trade with EU. Some basic factors such as income, population and agricultural land can explain agricultural trade potentials. This could be shown using a gravity model, which reveals the significance and direction of the variables mentioned and others such as distance and membership of regional blocs. The gravity model is then used to roughly estimate the long-term trade potentials of trade between the CEEC and the EU. Export potentials are relatively high, whereas agricultural imports are likely to increase only in an EU accession scenario.
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Paper provided by Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO) in its series IAMO Discussion Papers with number
14914.
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Leamer, Edward E. & Levinsohn, James, 1995.
"International trade theory: The evidence,"
Handbook of International Economics,
in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1339-1394
Elsevier.
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