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Great earthquakes, exchange rate volatility and government interventions

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  • Mariko Hatase

    ()
    (Bank of Japan)

  • Mototsugu Shintani

    ()
    (Deaprtment of Economics, Vanderbilt University)

  • Tomoyoshi Yabu

    ()
    (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University)

Abstract

The Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, as well as the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 1995 and the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923, resulted in disorderly movements of yen in the foreign exchange market. This paper investigates the exchange rate volatility shift after these three great earthquakes in Japan and examines if similar excess volatility after major earthquakes can also be observed in other countries. In addition, using a unique daily data set from the Great Kanto Earthquake period, the episode with the largest increased volatility among all three great earthquakes, we estimate a reaction function of foreign exchange market intervention, and evaluate the role of government intervention in stabilizing the foreign exchange market during the time of increased uncertainty caused by a large unexpected negative shock in the economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Vanderbilt University Department of Economics in its series Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers with number 13-00007.

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Date of creation: 25 Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-sub-13-00007

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Web page: http://www.vanderbilt.edu/econ/wparchive/index.html

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Keywords: foreign exchange intervention; natural disasters; propensity score;

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  1. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
  2. Robert J. Barro, 2007. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," NBER Working Papers 13690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Cassis,Youssef, 2006. "Capitals of Capital," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845359, April.
  4. Baillie, Richard T. & P. Osterberg, William, 1997. "Central bank intervention and risk in the forward market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 483-497, November.
  5. Yasuyuki Sawada & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2008. "How Do People Cope with Natural Disasters? Evidence from the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake in 1995," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 463-488, 03.
  6. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
  7. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
  8. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
  11. Nagayasu, Jun, 2004. "The effectiveness of Japanese foreign exchange interventions during 1991-2001," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 377-381, September.
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