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The Dog That Did Not Bark: Insider Trading and Crashes

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Author Info
José M. Marín ()
Jacques Olivier

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Abstract

This paper documents that at the individual stock level insiders sales peak many months before a large drop in the stock price, while insiders purchases peak only the month before a large jump. We provide a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on trading constraints and asymmetric information. We test our hypothesis against competing stories such as patterns of insider trading driven by earnings announcement dates, or insiders timing their trades to evade prosecution. Finally we provide new evidence regarding crashes and the degree of information asymmetry.

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File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/948.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 948.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:948

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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Related research
Keywords: Insider Trading; Rational Expectations Equilibrium; Trading Constraints; Volatility; Crashes;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Marin, Jose M & Rahi, Rohit, 2000. "Information Revelation and Market Incompleteness," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(3), pages 563-79, July.
    Other versions:
  2. Harrison Hong & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000861, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sylvain Friederich & Alan Gregory & John Matatko & Ian Tonks, 2002. "Short-run Returns around the Trades of Corporate Insiders on the London Stock Exchange," European Financial Management, Blackwell Publishing Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 7-30. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 391749000000000553, www.najecon.org. [Downloadable!]
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  7. H. Henry Cao & Joshua D. Coval & David Hirshleifer, 2002. "Sidelined Investors, Trading-Generated News, and Security Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 615-648, March.
  8. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  9. Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1993. " Long-Term Market Overreaction or Biases in Computed Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 39-63, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Chamberlain, Gary, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 225-38, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Devenow, Andrea & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Rational herding in financial economics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 603-615, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Barlevy, Gadi & Veronesi, Pietro, 2003. "Rational panics and stock market crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 234-263, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Suleyman Basak & David Cass & Juan Manuel Licari & Anna Pavlova, 2006. "Multiplicity and Sunspots in General Financial Equilibrium with Portfolio Constraints," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  15. Lakonishok, Josef & Lee, Inmoo, 2001. "Are Insider Trades Informative?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 79-111.
  16. Joseph Chen & Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Forecasting Crashes: Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 7687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Meulbroek, Lisa K, 1992. " An Empirical Analysis of Illegal Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1661-99, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Leslie A. Jeng & Andrew Metrick & Richard Zeckhauser, 2003. "Estimating the Returns to Insider Trading: A Performance-Evaluation Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 453-471, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Bubbles and Crises The Economic Journal," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. José M. Marín & Antoni Sureda-Gomila, 2007. "Firms vs. insiders as traders of last resort," Working Papers 2007-21, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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