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High Food and Oil Prices and Their Impact on the Achievement of MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific

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  • Clovis Freire

    ()
    (Economic Affairs Officer, Development Policy Section, Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)

  • Alberto Isgut

    ()
    (Economic Affairs Officer, Development Policy Section, Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific)

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of the high food prices of 2010 on income poverty and the achievement of MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific. It also estimates the impacts of high price during 2011 under various scenarios for the prices of food and oil. We find that although the high food prices of 2010 have not caused an increase in poverty in the region, they slowed down the rate of poverty reduction - the estimated number of poor decreased by 24.5 million people between 2009 and 2010, compared with 43.8 million people if staple food prices had not increased above domestic rates of inflation. By detailing the methodology and assumptions used to produce our estimates, the paper also highlights the need for broader and more open discussion on methodological issues to provide policymakers and poverty data users with a better understanding of the limitations of any such exercise.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in its series MPDD Working Paper Series with number WP/11/18.

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Handle: RePEc:unt:wpmpdd:wp/11/18

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Keywords: Poverty measurement; food prices; Millennium Development Goals;

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  1. Misselhorn, Mark & Klasen, Stephan, 2006. "Determinants of the Growth Semi-Elasticity of Poverty Reduction," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 15, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  2. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank.
  3. Sébastien Dessus & Santiago Herrera & Rafael de Hoyos, 2008. "The impact of food inflation on urban poverty and its monetary cost: some back-of-the-envelope calculations," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 417-429, November.
  4. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael E. & Medvedev, Denis & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2007. "Global growth and distribution : are China and India reshaping the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4392, The World Bank.
  5. Zezza, Alberto & Davis, Benjamin & Azzarri, Carlo & Covarrubias, Katia & Tasciotti, Luca & Anriquez, Gustavo, 2009. "The Impact of Rising Food Prices on the Poor," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51696, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Alberto Zezza & Benjamin Davis & Carlo Azzarri & Katia Covarrubias & Luca Tasciotti & Gustavo Anriquez, 2008. "The Impact of Rising Food Prices on the Poor," Working Papers 08-07, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
  6. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Eliisabeth, 2009. "The Impact of Rising Food Prices on Household Welfare in India," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt7xj9n1qq, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
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Cited by:
  1. Clovis Freire & Aynul Hasan & M. Hussain Malik, . "High Food Prices in Asia-Pacific: Policy Initiatives in view of Supply Uncertainty and Price Volatility," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/12/01, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
  2. Aye, Goodness C., 2012. "The Long and Short Run Impacts of Food and Energy Price Shocks: Evidence from Nigeria," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Freemantle, Australia 125048, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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