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High Food Prices and their Implications for Poverty in Uganda From Demand System Estimation to Simulation

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  • Boysen, Ole

Abstract

This paper represents an initial attempt at assessing the importance of estimated demand systems for the simulation of large price shocks with respect to poverty analysis. Using a Ugandan household survey data set and an estimated flexible demand system, three different approaches to simulating the compensated expenditure budget due to large food price shocks are compared: a non-behavioral microaccounting, and three behavioral demand systems (LES, CDE, and QUAIDS). The aim of this study is twofold. First, to provide an indication whether it is worthwhile to invest in the estimation of a demand system for similar consumption side poverty impact analyses. Second, to provide a sense of the magnitude in the loss of fidelity from using a less flexible instead of a more flexible demand system within computable general equilibrium analyses of poverty impacts. The results show that using no demand system overestimates poverty impacts to quite some extent. The differences between using either of the three demand systems are rather small but may be more substantial in the extremes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 150700.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150700

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Keywords: Demand system; simulation; Uganda; food price inflation; poverty; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; International Relations/Trade;

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  1. Wodon, Quentin & Tsimpo, Clarence & Backiny-Yetna, Prospere & Joseph, George & Adoho, Franck & Coulombe, Harold, 2008. "Potential impact of higher food prices on poverty : summary estimates for a dozen west and central African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4745, The World Bank.
  2. Hanoch, Giora, 1975. "Production and Demand Models with Direct or Indirect Implicit Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 395-419, May.
  3. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
  4. Simler, Kenneth R., 2010. "The short-term impact of higher food prices on poverty in Uganda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5210, The World Bank.
  5. Bjarne Jensen & Paul Boer & Jan Daal & Peter Jensen, 2011. "Global restrictions on the parameters of the CDES indirect utility function," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 102(3), pages 217-235, April.
  6. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
  7. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas & Preckel, Paul & Eales, James, 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," GTAP Working Papers 1182, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  8. Todd Benson & Samuel Mugarura & Kelly Wanda, 2008. "Impacts in Uganda of rising global food prices: the role of diversified staples and limited price transmission," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 513-524, November.
  9. Aksoy , M. Ataman & Isik-Dikmelik, Aylin, 2008. "Are low food prices pro-poor ? net food buyers and sellers in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4642, The World Bank.
  10. Ole Boysen, 2012. "A Food Demand System Estimation for Uganda," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp396, IIIS.
  11. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
  12. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  13. Vartia, Yrjo O, 1983. "Efficient Methods of Measuring Welfare Change and Compensated Income in Terms of Ordinary Demand Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 79-98, January.
  14. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
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