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Is There a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?

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  • James Heintz
  • Léonce Ndikumana

Abstract

This working paper examines the question of whether inflation targeting monetary policy is an appropriate framework for sub-Saharan African countries. The paper presents an overview of inflation targeting, reviews the justification for the regime, and summarizes some major critiques. Monetary policy responses to inflation depend on the source of inflationary pressures. Therefore, the determinants of inflation in African countries areinvestigated, using dynamic panel data, and the implications for inflation targeting are discussed. These issues are examined in greater detail for the two African countries which have formally adopted inflation targeting, South Africa and Ghana. The analysis is placed in the context of the global economic crisis. The paper concludes with a discussion of alternative approaches to monetary policies and the institutional constraints that would need to be addressed to allow central banks to play a stronger developmental role in sub-Saharan African countries.

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File URL: http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_201-250/WP218.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst in its series Working Papers with number wp218.

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Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uma:periwp:wp218

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Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa; inflation; development; monetary policy; finance;

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References

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  1. D. Hodge, 2006. "Inflation and growth in South Africa," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 163-180, March.
  2. Gerald Epstein, 2008. "An employment targeting framework for central bank policy in South Africa," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 243-258.
  3. Gerald Epstein & Erinc Yeldan, 2008. "Inflation Targeting, Employment Creation and Economic Development: Assessing the Impacts and Policy Alternatives," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 129-130.
  4. Joshua Aizenman & Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2008. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 14561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kasekende Louis & Brixova Zuzana & Ndikumana Leonce, 2010. "Africa: Africa's Counter-Cyclical Policy Responses to the Crisis," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, January.
  6. A. Senhadji Semlali & Mohsin S. Khan, 2000. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Working Papers 00/110, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1995. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1517, The World Bank.
  8. Frederic Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 404, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. John Thornton, 2008. "Money, Output And Inflation In African Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 356-366, 09.
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  12. Gerald Epstein, 2007. "Central banks as agents of employment creation," Working Papers 38, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
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  14. Nelson Barbosa-Filho, 2008. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: 1999-2006," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 187-200.
  15. Richard C.K. Burdekin & Arthur T. Denzau & Manfred W. Keil & Thitithep Sitthiyot & Thomas D. Willett, . "When Does Inflation Hurt Economic Growth? Different Nonlinearities for Different Economies," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2000-22, Claremont Colleges.
  16. Jose Antonio Cordero, 2008. "Economic growth under alternative monetary regimes: inflation targeting vs real exchange rate targeting," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 145-160.
  17. Roberto Frenkel & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy and Employment," Working Papers 19, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
  18. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  19. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  20. Jannie Rossouw & Vishnu Padayachee, 2009. "Measuring Inflation Credibility: Results Of A First Representative South African Sample," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(2), pages 314-331, 06.
  21. Thandika Mkandawire, 1999. "The political economy of financial reform in Africa," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 321-342.
  22. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
  23. Emilio Sacerdoti, 2005. "Access to Bank Credit in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/166, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Shanaka J. Peiris & Régis Barnichon, 2007. "Sources of Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 07/32, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Oladipo Olajide, 2007. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-26, October.
  26. Kevin Nell, 2004. "The structuralist theory of imported inflation: an application to South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1431-1444.
  27. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jaime Ros, 2008. "Alternatives to inflation targeting in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 201-214.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Regassa Senbeta S., 2011. "How applicable are the New Keynesian DSGE models to a typical Low-Income Economy?," Working Papers 2011016, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  2. Zuzana Brixiová & Léonce Ndikumana, 2011. "Supporting Africa’s Post-Crisis Growth: The Role of Macroeconomic Policies," Working Papers wp254, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  3. Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Festus O. Egwaikhide, 2013. "Saving-Investment Nexus In Developing Countries: Does Financial Development Matter?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 119-140, June.
  4. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Lucas Kamau Njoroge & Sheila Kaminchia, 2012. "Feasibility of inflation targeting in an emerging market: evidence from Kenya," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 146-159, June.

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